Week In Review: Political Maneuvers, Global Uncertainty, and More

Orda has put together a brief synopsis of last week's news.

Arrests and Security Operations, Elections in Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz "Barcelona" Project

Kyrgyz authorities detained 11 people, including a former member of parliament, on suspicion of organizing mass riots. During searches, officials discovered grenades, firearms, drugs, religious literature, and written instructions for organizing protests, along with balaclavas and fake license plates.

The suspects, reportedly members of a public association called "Kyrk Uruu Zheti Duban Yntymagy," allegedly held regular meetings where they called for protests and destabilization. 

Such instances appear to be following a pattern, alluding to potential "resentment" among targets of law enforcement agencies. The latest law enforcement operation was amid Bishkek's clampdown on civil society, pointing to authorities' seeing potential destabilization around every corner.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Tajikistan, news agency "Asia-Plus" and several international media outlets, including Radio Ozodi and The BBC, learned they could not cover the March 2 parliamentary elections. Central Electoral Commission officials claim media outlets needed special permission to cover the elections and their predictable outcome, with the application deadline having passed on February 10.

In a previous development, OSCE announced the cancellation of its parliamentary election observation mission on February 4.

The above requirement was only posted on internal pages of the Commission's website without official notification to media outlets. According to Tajik law, the Commission's activities should be accessible to the press.

Reportedly, only a few state-controlled media organizations received accreditation to cover the elections. Tajikistan is becoming more closed amid the possibility of the long-discussed power transition from father to son, i.e., Rahmon Emomali and Rustam Emomali.

The media's inability to cover said elections, coupled with the nation's recent crackdowns and shakeups, suggests that the Central Asian nation continues on its already well-known repressive path while the local elite seek to secure their own "stability."

Although the power transition immediately comes to the forefront, experts shared in an interview with the Majilis Podcast that authorities' actions could be a signal to potential political opponents and dissidents, or it's simply a paranoid management style that has become an entrenched part of the system.

The two above nations have also greatly progressed in their longstanding border dispute, further solidifying the notion that they prioritize internal matters despite decades of disagreement that sometimes manifested as armed clashes.

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov responded to investigative reports about the Barça football academy in Bishkek.

He reiterated that profits from the "Barcelona" residential complex are being used to fund social facilities and pay for the Barça franchise. 

Kloop journalists had reported that companies implementing the project in Bishkek and Jalal-Abad were connected to intelligence chief Kamchybek Tashiev and that "Jal Group Asia" received 17 hectares of land valued at $64.3 million from the Presidential Administration. Journalists calculated that, in total, the developer's revenue could be at least $360 million.

Japarov dismissed the criticism, saying the project would only break even in 20-30 years, while Tashiev dubbed the investigation "defamation," a serious assertion considering the substantial monetary penalties recently adopted for defamation. 

Ukraine-US Relations Under Strain

Tensions broke out between Ukraine and the United States following President Zelenskyy's Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump. Following a heated exchange, Zelenskyy departed the White House earlier than planned, with further uncertainty concerning security guarantees. 

Reports subsequently emerged that the Trump administration was mulling halting military supplies to Ukraine. 

NBC News also revealed a more troubling development: the State Department terminated U.S. support for Ukraine's energy grid restoration before the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. The decision ends funding for a USAID program investing significantly to rebuild Ukraine's energy infrastructure despite consistent Russian attacks.

Zelenskyy effectively signaled an unwillingness to yield to the Trump administration without security guarantees, a point he has raised several times. However, he was not left out to dry and is still open to discussions. 

The UK stepped in with a significant loan for Ukraine, with other nations also announcing support. 

Even if the U.S. follows through on its claims to cut military aid to Ukraine, Europe is unlikely to follow suit.

European nations are moving to address weapon supply shortages, but time is not on their side. Nor is there clarity about what looks like an American 180 on support for the continent and ongoing divergence regarding certain matters, such as Russia's frozen assets, among EU members.

Before the Trump-Zelenskyy debacle, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation initiated by Putin, though specific topics remain undisclosed. Russian media claimed Xi expressed support for Russia's efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis while emphasizing that China-Russia relations "are not directed against any third party."

A follow-up visit by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to China occurred almost three weeks later. Shoigu explicitly mentioned the above call.

This development may be unrelated, yet previous reports have indicated that the Chinese authorities are concerned about a potential rapprochement between Moscow and Washington, explaining Shoigu's visit.

Discussions on reviving diplomatic missions, resuming direct flights, and Arctic cooperation add weight to such a theory. Indeed, the Arctic remains an area of contention between China and Russia.

Sanctions against Russia have created a dependence favoring Beijing as well. 

But, Moscow has also expressed concerns about how things are going with Trump, regardless of initially positive interpretations after he clashed with Zelenskyy. Moreover, China views Russia’s war in Ukraine as a factor that diverts U.S. focus and resources from the Indo-Pacific.

Experts have also cautioned that the Kremlin's maximalist and minimalist goals regarding Ukraine remain essentially unchanged.

Washington's aim could be to distance Moscow from China, but such an outcome is unlikely, especially if talks, be it about Ukraine or rapprochement, flatline. Given the EU's currently shaky relations with the U.S. and its support of Ukraine, the EU will be more than hesitant to lift its sanctions against Russia.

Türkiye has expressed willingness to provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Russia. Still, such an outcome is hinged on "how talks progress," suggesting hesitancy in the context of Ankara's fluid relationship with the West and Russia. 

Ukraine will be able to fight on, perhaps not at the same pace, but the war's end seems anything but certain. As long as Russian troops continue to advance, Moscow will see no reason to stop its aggression, and as history shows, unstable cease-fire agreements lead to violations.

And so far, only a one-month truce has been envisioned.

Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Process and Regional Developments

Armenia is analyzing the 12th draft of a peace treaty received from Azerbaijan. Speaking to journalists, Pashinyan confirmed that two of the 17 treaty points remain unresolved, reportedly concerning the deployment of third-country troops along the border and legal claims in international courts.

He emphasized that Armenia has never agreed to limit its sovereignty or territorial integrity in the context of unblocking regional communications and that Armenia's proposals are based on reciprocity.

At the same time, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan's speech at the Geneva 58th UN Human Rights Council session points to Yerevan's doubts. Mirzoyan reaffirmed that Azerbaijan's statements continue to cast doubt on Armenia's territorial integrity.

Considering Baku's consistent and aggressive narrative, Armenian civil society's criticism of their authorities appeasing Azerbaijan's demands, and the international community mostly remaining ineffective, a resolution is far off. 

Disagreements in opening up regional communications will continue to compound such efforts.

In other news, Azerbaijan officials acknowledged Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's decision to honor surviving crew members of an AZAL aircraft that crashed near Aqtau in December 2024, resulting in 38 deaths.

The acknowledgment was tinged with dissatisfaction, however, as they deemed his response "belated." Baku is sticking to its guns and awaiting acknowledgment from higher authorities.

Incidentally, Kadyrov's name came up in reports in a separate continent.

Romanian authorities detained former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu on serious charges, including incitement against constitutional order and establishing a fascist organization. Investigators reportedly uncovered connections between Georgescu's bodyguard and Russian government officials, including members of Ramzan Kadyrov's military personnel in Chechnya.

If these reports and the "Chechen link" prove accurate, this will be the second recent such link unearthed in a post-Soviet country's political life.