Week In Review: Shifting Dynamics, Diplomatic Tensions, and More...

Peace Negotiations Take Global Center Stage 

Russian and U.S. representatives began significant diplomatic talks in Saudi Arabia, initially signaling progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine. 

The Kremlin confirmed Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov flew to Riyadh on Putin's orders, with discussions focused on "restoring Russian-American relations" and potential peace negotiations over Ukraine. Strange as it may be, Ukraine was sidelined.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that a possible Trump-Putin meeting hinges on progress toward ending the war, while subsequent reports alluded to an impending meeting.

President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine would never accept deals made behind their backs." Ironically, secret meetings between the U.S. and Russian authorities preceded their meetings in Saudi Arabia.

Trump nonetheless dismissed these concerns, effectively blaming Ukraine for the conflict. 

The situation escalated when Trump called Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" and questioned Ukraine's use of U.S. aid. Further tensions followed, including a threat to disconnect Ukraine from Starlink, an instrument that has proven to be crucial on the battlefield against Russia. 

Kyiv's hesitance to sign the Trump administration's mineral deal spurred the "warning" with subsequent denials.  

The U.S. has presented Ukraine with an improved minerals agreement, removing controversial elements like New York court jurisdiction, but Kyiv could be weighing other options. A noteworthy aspect is the location of the metals in question: several deposits are either in Russian-occupied territory or too close to the front lines.

Legal restrictions, such as Ukraine's constitution, add to these complications. Trump continued to reiterate his claims that the U.S. should receive compensation, while his administration "requested" Kyiv withdraw its U.N. resolution on Russian aggression. Although the deal may necessitate the U.S. to safeguard generated revenue, the lack of security guarantees alludes to the ability to abandon it.

Against this backdrop, European leaders gathered at the Élysée Palace in Paris to address their exclusion from U.S.-Russia negotiations. And British Prime Minister Keir Starmer boldly announced readiness for potential troop deployment.

Unfortunately, the above Paris gathering exposed tangible divergence.

To add injury to insult, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said Europe had found itself "at the children's table" in Ukraine negotiations, naming insufficient defense industry investment, with weapons stockpiles critically low, as the reason.

Although efforts are underway to address the deficiency, replenishing them is time-consuming. U.S. reliance complicates these efforts, especially considering the Trump administration's latest behavior,  coupled with what looks like a prioritization of rapprochement with Russia.

Despite ongoing sanctions and future financing efforts, Europe's continued import of Russian gas highlights its inability to break away from former dependencies, fueling Russia's war machine.

In this context, Zelenskyy's meeting with Turkish President Erdoğan comes to the fore.

Erdoğan has long positioned himself as a potential mediator, and his nation has consistently supported Kyiv, thus explaining why Zelenskyy perceives Ankara as a way to lock in security guarantees. 

Ankara's engagement is more fluid than meets the eye, though.

Indeed, Türkiye maintains multifaceted ties with Moscow, including Russian gas imports reaching 45% in 2024. And Türkiye's weight, currently strengthened by its mediator status and sanctions against Russia, could be diminished as Moscow seemingly creeps its way out of isolation.

The situation became more complex when Ukrainian forces struck the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station; a significant portion of Kazakhstan's oil passes through there. The strike may have been a signal to those who benefit from oil flowing through the station, such as American companies Chevron and ExxonMobil. 

Considering the impact on Kazakhstan, Astana —  long neutral — will act diplomatically, which, in turn, could restrain Ukrainian authorities from further such strikes. Potential communications with other involved actors, e.g., the above companies, could also follow, extending and amplifying their diplomatic reach. 

Kazakhstan must compensate for previous overproduction of OPEC+ quotas, suggesting a timely coincidence. Production is still set to increase, potentially offsetting the negative effects.

Regardless, if peace negotiations bear no fruit and tensions between Kyiv and Washington take a turn for the worse, Ukraine could continue to act in ways it deems necessary to force others to respond, underscoring its ability to maneuver independently.

And Zelenskyy's public admission regarding his willingness to step down in tandem with his rebuttal of Trump's claims on debts owed, effectively owning such a decision and deflecting external pressure, underscores such agency.

Troubling Regional News

Mediazona Central Asia suspended operations, stating they "would temporarily be unable to report on corrupt officials, law enforcement misconduct, and other problems in our countries." No further clarifications followed. 

Although the outlet said the suspension is temporary, the development comes amid an already troublesome picture of Central Asia's media landscape. 

Meanwhile, an investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe has uncovered that a core group of around 300 judges consistently oversee politically sensitive cases in Russia.

The discovery challenges official claims about random case assignment. The findings stem from an extensive analysis covering over 2,000 criminal and 84,000 administrative proceedings.

While Russia implemented an automated distribution system in 2019 - purportedly designed to balance caseloads based on judges' availability, expertise, and scheduling - the data suggests a different reality for political cases.

Diplomatic Developments

Bloomberg doubled down with its second claim that Russia is once again "closing in" on a deal to maintain its military footprint in Syria.

Almost as if it were out of spite, reports of drone attacks on Russia's Khmeimim air base also surfaced.

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not immediately comment, and the respective authorities also did not confirm. Who is behind the attack remains unclear, but other regional actors could be trying to stir the pot.

Given the past week's developments, i.e., talks between Putin and Ahmed al-Sharaa, as well as Russia sending cash to Syria, the silence is telling — engagement will proceed to the same tune it was, though Moscow's financial aid commitment remains in question.

In other news regarding regional tensions, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have signed the final protocol on border delimitation. Approval from both parliaments and presidential signatures are all that remain. Such an outcome is a significant development, as unresolved border issues between the two nations have caused armed clashes.

The two nations disproving initial doubts points to regional cohesion being at the forefront regardless of past grievances. Given the long-discussed power transition in Tajikistan and the clampdown on opposition in Kyrgyzstan, leadership in both nations is likely honing in on what they see as domestic stability.

The recent UN report indicating that over 20 terrorist cells were operating in Afghanistan as of late 2024 substantiates this logic. Thus, Afghanistan remains a significant concern, even if efforts suggest attempted reintegration. 

The ISKP's* (also known as ISIL-K*) trend of recruitment among Central Asians to bring them to Afghanistan amplifies said concerns. The ISKP (ISIL-K) is banned in Kazakhstan.

*Terrorist organization recognized as extremist in Kazakhstan: ISIS (Islamic State, by decision of the court of the Yesil district of Astana dated October 15, 2015)