Week in Review: Protests, Arrests, and More

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Orda has put together a synopsis of last week's news.

Little Abkhazia, Big Problems

Protests shook Abkhazia's capital, Sukhumi. They were sparked by the arrest of opponents to an investment deal with RussiaUpon their release, things cooled down but heated up again later in the week. Despite demands, the nation's President refused to resign but later put forward terms for his departure. 

His statements of a coup attempt still made their rounds, while the opposition claimed to control government structures to ensure the operations of strategic facilities. They also voiced their ultimatum to establish an interim government if the President did not tender his resignation.

New Levels

Iran and Russia reached a new level of cooperation, connecting their interbank networks. Russia's ATM network should now be able to service Iranian banking cards. India, another country with continuing economic ties with Moscow, reaffirmed the two nations' aims to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.

At the same time, New Dehli did not fail to mention their ongoing trade disbalance dominated by Russian energy exports  — $57 billion. 

Russia's largest oil producer, Rosneft, dismissed the WSJ's claims that key Russian oil producers intended to merge. Rosneft was to absorb Gazprom Neft and Lukoil, but the company dubbed such an assumption as "illogical business practice." 

Presumably, the merger would have paved the way for higher prices and "strengthened" the companies' resistance to sanctions.

On a related note, Novaya Gazeta.Evropa asserts that Russia could be entering "stagflation." Previous monetary injections into the military-industrial complex that fostered economic growth will likely lose steam toward 2024's end. 

Russia and Uzbekistan: New Laws, Cultural Shifts, and Economic Developments

State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced the introduction of a bill against the backdrop of Moscow's clampdown on migrants. If adopted, it would ban children who do not know Russian from learning in Russian schools. Incidentally, another controversial law was adopted: the "Child-free" propaganda ban.

Experts asked by "The Insider" believe the law's vagueness, not dissimilar to the LGBT propaganda ban, allows liability to extend to almost anyone and everything regarding having or not having children.

In Uzbekistan, news surfaced that the Center for Educational Research at Milliy Tiklanish, along with Milliy Tiklanish party leader Alisher Qadirov, have taken a page from Russia's book and begun drafting a ban on "LGBT propaganda." The party confirmed the document has yet to become a bill, and only upon completion could it be submitted to the Oliy Majlis's legislative chamber. 

Concerning economics, Uzbekistan has become a party to the Asia-Pacific region's cross-border trade simplification agreement. Such membership will facilitate Tashkent's goal of bolstering its logistic transit.

In addition, Tashkent also locked in another €3 million German grant for “green” industrialization and a strategic partnership with Astana and Baku for producing and transiting environmentally friendly energy at COP29 in Baku.

Kyrgyzstan Crackdown

Meanwhile, in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, pressure on the media seems to have continued. The nation's Ministry of Culture has launched an investigation into Next TV.

A local, Sanzhar Adylbek uulu, filed a complaint claiming Next TV was disseminating “negative information” that could provoke “protest sentiments.” Dmitry Lozhnikov, Next TV's general producer, sees the investigation as further efforts to shutter the media, while its owner and opposition politician, Ravshan Dzheenbekov, considers it deliberate and coordinated pressure.

A political party, The Social Democrats Party, came under the crosshairs as well.

Law enforcement has purported they had bought votes. The party leader, Temirlan Sultanbekov, and his fellow members, Irina Karamushkina and Roza Turksever, received a two-month arrest. The party subsequently lost its registration for the November 17 deputy elections. They attempted to challenge the decision, but election authorities began the review process only after voting finished. 

Kadyr Atambayev, the son of former president Almazbek Atambayev, is a notable party member. He and other party members had been brought in for questioning. His father, Almazbek, once headed the party.

Former Deputy Prosecutor General, Major General of Justice Kuban Adyl Uulu was also detained earlier in the week. He, along with six others, faces charges, including attempted power seizure. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has reported they intended to fuel riots to topple the government.

Following the politicians' arrests, Kamchybek Tashiev, the head of Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security, warned that detentions could continue during the aforementioned elections.

Ironically enough, he also announced that Raimbek Matraimov was released from pre-trial detention after paying $200 million to the budget. Matraimov is a Former Customs Deputy Head staring down incriminations such as money laundering. He also had alleged ties to crime boss Kamchy Kolbayev, killed in Bishkek during a law enforcement operation.

In an interview with a Russian outlet the prior weekend, Former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev laid the blame on conspirators, namely succeeding Presidents, for his ousting.

Akayev floated statements that they received US support for "The Tulip Revolution," which brought his downfall. For some time now, Akayev has been attempting to repair his tarnished image and restore his status as a former President.

Tajikistan: Oppositionist Deported, Turkmen Receive Murky Reminder, High-Profile Court Cases Ongoing

At the beginning of the week, yet another Tajik oppositionist deported from Europe ended up in Dushanbe's clutches. According to Radio Ozoidi, Farrukh Ikromov has received a 23-year sentence; there was no official announcement. Ikromov reportedly participated in protests when Tajik President Emomali Rahmon was in Germany.

Tajik law enforcement has also scrutinized Turkmen nationals. Around 40 were detained in Dushanbe, and officers seized some of their passports. Reports indicate that a fight at a bar preceded the initial arrests. Yet, some Turkmen migrants are convinced this is connected to their nation's authorities attempting to bring citizens back, whether they want to return or not.

Officials from both countries gave little to no details. Tajikistan's officials also scantly commented on a more high-profile case. 

Prosecutor General Yusuf Rahmon confirmed the criminal case against Hamrokhon Zarifi, Akbarshoh Iskandarov, Akhmadshoh Komilzoda, and Shokirjon Khakimov, declining to provide further information. These four were purportedly in close contact with prominent Tajik parliament member Saidjafar Usmonzoda, who was arrested in June for attempting to seize power violently.

The case remains classified, preventing clarifications from reaching the public, though those accused maintain their innocence. The reason behind this unclear situation could be ensuring a smooth power transition from Emomali Rahmon to his presumed successor – his son Rustam Emomali.

Alleged Espionage, Military Fakes: Controversial Verdicts

A Russian court, meanwhile, handed down a lengthy sentence to a Tajik national — 14 years. The court ruled he "systematically sent information to Ukrainian security forces." His friends, however, believe the actual reason is his refusal to go to Ukraine.

In a similar case, the FSB manipulated an unsuspecting Ivan Tolpygin to "commit activities" against Russia's security. Under the direction of the FSB, a man the court dubbed "Timur," posing as a Ukrainian, convinced Tolpygin to document and pass on the coordinates of Russian military facilities. Tolpygin was previously sentenced to 4 years and recognized as a victim of political repression by Memorial.

According to the human rights project Pervy Otdel, this is unlikely to be the only such instance.

Preceding these reports, a more widely known case holding everyone on the edge of their seats in Russia came to a close. 

68-year-old pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova was handed down 5.5 years over "fakes" about the army. A Russian soldier's ex-wife turned her in over alleged Buyanova's statements that her husband was a legitimate target and Moscow was to blame for the war. As there was no documentation of the conversation, the woman's and her seven-year-old son's testimony served as the basis for the final verdict.

Later on in the week, news emerged that Russia and the US may swap prisoners again as soon as February 2025. The lawyer of Ksenia Karelina, a dual US-Russian citizen given a 12-year sentence and supposedly on the list for exchange, shared the unconfirmed news.

News From Kazakhstan

Two days prior, information emerged that Pavel Vladimirov, an 18-year-old native of Voronezh, was in an Almaty pre-trial detention center. 

Continuing topics concerning Kazakhstan, an Astana court dismissed journalists' lawsuit against the Ministry of Culture. 12 journalists attempted to challenge parts of the "Model Regulations of Accreditation," which they saw as restrictive.

The following Friday, Vlast.kz reported that the KASE-AIX merger was on an indefinite hold. KASE and AIX are Kazakhstan's largest stock exchanges. A month prior, KASE had parted ways with the sanctioned Moscow Stock Exchange, a former 13.1% shareholder. However, two Russian funds would replace the exchange. 

Coincidentally, Fitch Ratings seemingly quelled long-standing sanction concerns. The agency stated that "no secondary sanctions" pose a risk thanks to the country's high compliance. Regardless, news about Kazakhstan-registered companies reexporting goods to Russia or coming under sanctions continues to pop up gradually. 

Conflicting reports about Kazakhstan's oil production also came to the fore. One stated Astana failed to meet OPEC+ quotas, whereas the other said the reduction in oil production output was sufficient. 

Future energy endeavors made headlines as well. Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met with Rosatom's head, substantiating previous reports concerning requests to meet with Kazakhstan's leadership.

Other efforts and the energy Minister's trip to South Korea preceded it.

Ring, Ring...

Two days after Bektenov's meeting, Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz spoke for the first time in two years. Their telephone call came under fire from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose country would later be subject to another massive Russian strike.

The day before, Zelenskyy emphasized the need to end the war diplomatically, reasserting Putin's lack of desire for peace and the necessary presence of other negotiators. Ukraine witnessed a policy shift from the Biden administration following the large-scale strikes. Kyiv has finally received the go-ahead to employ US weapons against targets in Russia's Kursk.

Before the call mentioned above, Germany ordered its state-owned port to reject Russian LNG imports, while Slovakia hashed out a short-term deal to purchase Azerbaijan's natural gas. Azerbaijan was previously reported to have been importing Russian gas, which Slovakia and Europe seek to replace. 

Azerbaijan and Georgia At The Global Forefront

Azerbaijan was the focus of another discussion. In Yerevan, emotions ran high after an opposition parliament faction tried to advance an initiative to adopt a statement on Armenians being held in Azerbaijan. It would have urged the international community to pressure Azerbaijan during COP29, which has faced international criticism. 

The Armenian parliament convened over the matter, but Pashinyan's Civil Contract party, the dominant faction, did not participate in the vote. As a result, the opposition's efforts fell through.

Signaling to its conflicting neighbors, Georgia offered to help broker talks between Baku and Yerevan.

The Georgian military had recently discussed increasing military cooperation with Armenia, likely hoping to consolidate regional security efforts, as Yerevan's faceoff with the CSTO trudges on and Tbilisi ventures further away from Western allies.

Indeed, notwithstanding calls for an independent investigation into voting, the Georgian Election Committee confirmed Georgian Dream's victory in the disputed parliament elections.

At the event, the head of the Georgian Election Committee was doused with black paintwhich resulted in a criminal case being opened against the douser and oppositionist David Kirtadze. 

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