Week In Review: From Eurasia to The Caucasus

Orda has put together a brief synopsis of last week's news.

Under Pressure

Kyrgyzstan's Social Democrat Party was again under scrutiny, with law enforcement questioning two members. 

Initially, Zhanna Samysheva was questioned as a witness on January 12 concerning the party's alleged "buying" of voters related to the Bishkek City Council elections. 

Then, her fellow party member Kadyrbek Atambaev reported Anarbek Kataganov's detention in the same investigation. 

Atambaev asserted that Kataganov's lawyers and family were unaware of his whereabouts.

Subsequent reports surfaced that the questioning was with his lawyer present.

Last November, party leader Temirlan Sultanbekov and members Irina Karamushkina and Roza Turksever were detained on voter bribery charges following a law enforcement raid at the party's HQ. 

The Social Democrats were subsequently barred from participating in the local council elections held on November 17, 2024.

Not long before the two above members were questioned, a Pervomaisky District Court of Bishkek handed down a 70,000 (roughly 800 USD) som fine to activist Aitilek Orozbekov.

The fine was for a social media post in which he allegedly publicly called for the violent seizure of power.

This is a persistent trend in Kyrgyzstan.

Kloop, for instance, calculated that 140 people have been arrested on charges such as "Mass Riots," "Public Calls for Violent Power Seizure," "Violent Power Seizure," and "Incitement of Racial, National, Religious, and Inter-ethnic Hatred."

Those charged include journalists, social activists, and ordinary social media users.

Against this backdrop, the nation's security head, Kamchybek Tashiev, once again boasted about his successful campaign against organized crime and corruption, paying tribute to lower corruption levels under incumbent President Sadyr Japarov.

Despite initial reports indicating differently, he later claimed he had not given the order to "eliminate" Kyrgyzstan's most infamous crime boss, Kamchy Kolbayev, killed in a 2023 law enforcement operation.

Tashiev has served as the State Committee for National Security Chair since October 2020, something he failed to mention when laying the blame for corruption on others' doors, a statement that extends to Japarov.

Japarov and Tashiev have indeed dispatched whatever they deem a political threat, and the above arrests fines suggest the scope goes beyond "criminal authorities."

Meanwhile, in neighboring Kazakhstan, two journalists also made headlines. Journalist Temirlan Yensebek was taken into custody over a statement filed with police concerning inciting ethnic hatred through publications on social networks. 

Yensebek is behind a media outlet known for satire and has a clear disclaimer about this.

At the same time, Vadim Boreiko became a target of what appears to be a smear attempt. 

Boreiko reached out to the police with a police statement against claims of a domestic disturbance that turned out to be fake.

News From The Caucasus

In Chechnya, human rights activists have reported on a system local security forces are using to coerce people to sign military contracts amid dwindling volunteer numbers. 

This practice follows the republic's leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, announcing young people who lead an "idle and immoral lifestyle" are better off serving to prove their commitments on the battlefield.

It is necessary to prove one's commitment to religion and national interests on the battlefield.he said.

Chechen security forces use methods such as kidnapping, pressure, threats of criminal and administrative cases, violence, and blackmail to force people into military service.

Similar reports concerning such roundups emerged in November.

Now, the new scheme forces relatives of detained locals to arrange an "exchange" and payment for a detainee's release. Security forces reportedly hold some volunteers from other regions against their will.

In parallel, Armenia's leadership faced its own pressure.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came under fire for what has been perceived as concessions to Baku's aggressive narratives.

In a chorus of disapproval, NGOs condemned his proposal to withdraw lawsuits against Azerbaijan in international courts and to disband the OSCE Minsk Group.

The group spearheaded the OSCE's efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Pashinyan had done so after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev put forward the group’s dissolution and changes to Armenia’s Constitution as conditions for peace. He, however, did not fail to outline his own conditions.

Against this backdrop, Georgia has proposed trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan and Armenia in the South Caucasus.

Tbilisi has previously expressed interest in exploring regional military cooperation with Armenia.

Although the efforts might be genuine and aim to secure regional stability, they will likely fall flat given the other two nations' strained relations. 

An explanation for why Tbilisi is doing so is the growing international pressure, e.g., sanctions, amid the recent parliamentary and presidential results that the opposition has dubbed illegitimate.

However, Armenia seems to be seeking cooperation elsewhere, mainly with the West.

And Baku's combative responses to US and EU criticism for its human rights violations position them as compatible allies — Yerevan's dissatisfaction with what they see as the Collective Security Treaty Organization's shortcomings complements this idea.

Still, Yerevan seems to be treading cautiously; Pashinyan supposedly called Putin to discuss Armenia's "Western-leaning" aspirations.

In such a context, expert opinion about Armenia's need to be self-reliant seems apt and further clarifies Yerevan's Westward pivot while keeping other allies in the loop, albeit on the back burner.

Kyiv’s Continuing Pressure on Moscow's Turf

Following sweeping sanctions, Russia's final European gas route, TurkStream, came under drone attack, though supplies purportedly remained unaffected. 

If the reports that Ukraine is behind the strikes against TurkStream are accurate, Kyiv is likely looking to amplify pressure on Moscow and its remaining revenue streams, which could be utilized in future talks. 

Continued strikes against Russia proper and dissatisfaction among Sudzha residents, a territory captured by Ukrainian forces, coupled with desertion and potential elite frustration, solidify this notion.

Notwithstanding continuing aid and support, Kyiv could also be experiencing pressure to come to the negotiation table. 

The pressure manifests domestically, internationally, and on the battlefield with desertion issues among Ukrainian troops.

In addition, Trump's team has openly acknowledged its inability to bring peace quickly.

Such a candid admission translates as future diplomatic runarounds on their part and a signal of potentially shifting policy prioritizing. Although Trump has announced intentions to talk with Putin, the lack of concrete details or plans undermines the announcement's significance.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to advance in Ukraine's East while both nations' manpower and equipment supply issues persist.

Despite having limited battlefield influence, Ukraine continuing to hold positions in Russia's Kursk Region may allude to Kyiv wanting another bargaining chip.

Still, experts told Novaya Gazeta that Russian authorities are unlikely to take such a condition seriously, which extends to their willingness to respond to domestic grievances.

Middle Eastern Expert Ruslan Suleymanov has also pointed out that Russia has somewhat secured further support from Iran by signing a cooperation treaty. Regardless, it forces Moscow to walk a tightrope with other regional actors, namely the United Arab Emirates.

Suleymanov highlights that Russia is much more economically dependent on the Emirates, a factor worth noting, considering how few are still willing to cooperate openly with Russia.

The Kremlin has signed declarations with the United Arab Emirates questioning Iran's sovereignty over three strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring Moscow's increased dependence on Abu Dhabi.

The "not supporting attacking nations" point in the cooperation treaty further amplifies this dilemma, implying that neither will go beyond the current status quo between Tehran and Moscow, i.e., supplying weapons and economics.

Interactions with a regional rival could indeed expose cracks in the delicate balance, eventually cascading onto the battlefield with Ukraine. 

These dynamics may influence the Kremlin's decision to sit across Ukrainian counterparts, though experts caution that Russian authorities' overconfidence could trump such a decision.