Week in Review: Long-range Missiles, Dismissals, and More.

Orda has put together a brief synopsis of last week's news...and a little bit from this week!

Red Light, Green light...

News cropped up about Türkiye proposing to freeze the conflict in Ukraine. Among the proposals were Kyiv forgoing NATO membership for at least 10 years and freezing the front line. Not long before, information surfaced that Trump's team put forward a 20-year freeze proposal on the NATO membership bid.

Still, the Kremlin dismissed Ankara's plan as "unacceptable," reinforcing notions that Moscow may not be ready to approach the negotiation table.

At the same time, the Biden administration finally green-lighted Kyiv's use of long-range missiles against Russian territory. Ukrainian troops wasted no time in launching them.

Experts, however, have cautioned that the finite supply of ATACMS would hinder any radical changes on the battlefield, though it will indeed contribute to Ukraine's ongoing strikes within Russia with its own weapons. Amid Russian advances in the eastern front of Ukraine, Biden also gave the go-ahead to supply anti-personal mines.

Yet, quantity is the overarching element here.

Despite Germany's hesitance to follow the White House's lead regarding missiles, perhaps other allies' strike authorizations will temporarily compensate for said limited supplies. 

Responding to the White House's authorization, Putin again rattled his saber by approving Russia's nuclear deterrence doctrine, which lowers the threshold to respond to threats. And not long after, Russia deployed a ballistic missile against Ukrainian territory.

Putin claimed the weapon was a new state-of-the-art missile dubbed "Oreshnik," stating it could not be counteracted and would be put into mass production. Ukrainian intelligence, on the other hand, believes it is the Kedr missile, which is also purportedly not in mass production. Ukrainian authorities will still seek to ramp up current air defense.

Although it was used conventionally, there is no reason to believe the strike was more than a signal, as was the doctrine. Moscow also has little motivation to go all in, given that its military is reportedly advancing, a notion solidified by the US not changing its own posture.

Kazakhstan's leadership still reacted to the circumstances by issuing instructions to bolster security and ensure the operations of strategic facilities. However, the response as such was likely more along the lines of a contingency plan as opposed to there being an actual risk.

Butting Heads?

Moscow's hopes of commissioning its favored project, "Power of Siberia 2," are seemingly tapering off. This spurred Russia's suggestion to pipe gas through Kazakhstan to China.

Whether the proposal becomes a reality is up in the air, but Astana will likely only agree upon beneficial terms, considering the growth of domestic gas consumption. Given Moscow's weaker negotiating position caused by limited options, such terms are attainable. 

Astana has other aspirations, such as the Kalamkas-Sea and Khazar fields and ramping up oil supplies to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline.

Additionally, some allude to Turkmen gas via Line D being a more viable option, as Ashgabat has been a long-standing gas supplier for China. But, rampant corruption in Turkmenistan may very well be just as detrimental as the political and economic risks linked to Russia. 

Ultimately, the two options do not have to compete, considering their supply routes should move in different directions. Turkmenistan and Russia's recent disagreement on gas pricing, which led to the kiboshing of the Turmengaz and Gazprom supply contract, could suggest that revenue streams would likely trump cooperation and coordination.

Yet, when push comes to shove, Turkmenistan will likely face just as much pushback over attempts to capitalize on prices, a tactic that might have hindered Ashgabat in other talks. Failure to see through other projects is another factor.

Therefore, China maintains leverage, and other energy may take the forefront in the long run as well.

75 Years...

As for corruption in Turkmenistan, a week before, a high-ranking official was detained on such suspicions following his November 15 dismissal. Begench Gochmollaev, the former Minister of Trade and Foreign Economic Relations, was sacked over "severe shortcomings" in his work. 

Gochmollaev was not the only one to be dismissed. Deputy Prime Minister Batyr Atdayev was also relieved, as he was "unable to handle his responsibilities." He later testified as a witness to the General Prosecutor's Office. He was allegedly involved in corruption via his positions. Ironically, he was previously the General Prosecutor.

The opaqueness inherent to Turkmenistan's political system complicates ascertaining the reasons, though such dismissals are nothing new.

Five days after the dismissals, well-known Turkmen journalist Soltan Achilova was prevented from leaving her country for Geneva. The 75-year-old journalist was to travel there for events hosted by the Martin Ennals Foundation, dedicated to her achievements. "Doctors," however, paid her a visit before her departure and forcibly took her in to be "examined for an infection."

Won't Buckle Under Pressure

Meanwhile, Kyrgyz security force bigwig Kamchybek Tashiev claimed that he and his family faced threats of violence. He alleged that there had been prior attempts on his and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japorov's lives. He did not rule out security forces being involved in the threatening letter.

Among other things, it supposedly demanded that Tashiev return confiscated property to former parliament speaker Chynybay Tursunbekov's widow. Nurzhan Tentimisheva, in turn, denied any connection to the author.

Despite the "danger," Tashiev asserted that "he would continue his fight against crime." Indeed, Tashiev boasted that in four years, 125 billion soms, namely assets and property, were returned to the state budget while combating criminal structures and the "oligarchy." Moreover, the author was detained not long after.

Before Tashiev divulged this information, Ruslan Duisheev, a member of crime boss Kamchy Kolbayev's organized crime group, was arrested on suspicion of plotting to assassinate Kyrgyzstan's National Security Committee leadership. Kamchy Kolbayev was killed in a law enforcement operation.

Perhaps coincidentally, former Zhogorku Kenesh deputy Kanat Isayev was detained on the same day as Tashiev's claims. While he has maintained innocence, law enforcement says Isayev financed Kamchy Kolbayev's organized crime group.

Against this action-packed backdrop, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted a bill on the rehabilitation of repression victims from 1918 to 1953, though Bishkek itself has recently exerted pressure on the media and politicians.

For Our Eyes Only

Also facing pressure in Tajikistan, Ahmadi Ibrahim saw his trial held behind closed doors.

Ibrahim, the founder and editor-in-chief of Paik, the only independent media in Tajikistan's Khatlon region, has been in custody since August 12, 2024. He was initially accused of giving a bribe. He is now starring down extremism and extortion charges, which entail fines and 5-10 year prison terms.

Ibrahim maintains his innocence. And some of those brought into court for questioning informed Radio Ozodi that almost no one has testified against him.

Other news from Tajikistan's Zarbuzi Gorge caught people's attention.

RFERL reported that one Chinese national was killed in a cross-border attack from Afghanistan. 5 others, 4 of which are Chinese nationals, were injured as a result. It is unclear who the attackers were – militants or drug traffickers. 

Afghanistan has long pledged to ensure its territory would not be used for terrorist activities. And notwithstanding Kabul's explicit attempts to establish improved relations with Dushanbe, Tajik authorities may be even more alert now.

CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov later announced that a document on reinforcing and equipping the Tajik-Afghan border would be adopted.

Sayonara 

Toward the end of the week, Uzbekistan saw a shake-up in its security forces. The State Security Service Chair, Abdusalom Azizov, was dismissed...to another position.

Lieutenant General Bakhodir Kurbanov, previously Uzbekistan's Defense Minister, replaced him. Azizov, in turn, transitioned to a position in the Security Council under the Uzbek President. Two law enforcement heads of criminal investigation and combating organized crime departments were shown the door the following day.

The head of the State Security Service Internal Security Department, Alijon Ashurov, and the assistant to the Prime Minister, Sarvar Ashurov, were also sacked. The two brothers are reported to have obstructed the investigation into an attempt on Komil Allamjonov's life.

The alleged conflict between Komil Allamjonov, Otabek Umarov, and the State Security Service is a notable background event, along with Allamjonov's close ties to Saida Mirziyoyeva, the daughter of the current President of Uzbekistan.

Otabek Umarov has left Uzbekistan, but it is unclear why.

An armed attack on Komil Allamjonov was committed on the night of October 26. Both assailants have been detained. 

She Said...

A high-profile case also gained some new details in Russia. Russian doctors have recorded a video message to Putin demanding pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova, sentenced to 5.5 years over "fakes," be released. Buyanova supposedly said that her patient's father was a legitimate target and Moscow was to blame for the war against Ukraine. There was no evidence aside from testimony.

Meanwhile, Chechen security forces questioned Zarema Musayeva concerning a fresh criminal case. 

Reportedly, Musayeva attacked an employee of the colony where she was serving her sentence. She is the mother of two Chechen opposition figures, Abubakar and Ibrahim Yangulbaev. Musayeva was abducted and transported to Chechnya in January 2022 and later sentenced to 5.5 years for "fraud" and assaulting an officer during her detention.

Chechen security forces have also been conducting round-ups following an attack on the Russian National Guard in the suburbs of Grozny.

The attack left one soldier dead. However, some see this as a pretext to force people into signing contracts to fight against Ukraine. Purportedly, those under scrutiny have to choose between doing so or facing prosecution for visiting the Chechen opposition's Telegram channels.

Details remain scant, as people refuse to talk with human rights activists.

Big Changes?

Much like Uzbekistan, Checnya's southern neighbor Armenia saw an overhaul at the beginning of the week. 5 law enforcement and judicial officials and the state revenue head received requests to resign from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Oppositionists regard this as a deflection from Pashinyan's own shortcomings and laying the groundwork for early elections.

A week prior, Freedom House released a statement asserting that Azerbaijan ethnically cleansed Nagorno-Karabakh of Armenians, a situation Pashinayn has caught flack over as well.

With elections on the horizon in Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenko seems to be "preparing" as well. Lukashenko forewarned that the 2020 internet shutdown during protests against his disputed re-election could be total in scale if the situation "repeats" itself. Lukashenko also pardoned another 32 political prisoners. 

While continuing to challenge the parliament elections, Georgian protestors faced threats from law enforcement. Georgian opposition planned a march to stop the first parliament session from being held.