Rising Gasoline Prices in Russia: Risk for Kazakhstan?

Gasoline prices in Russia are surging. This raises the question: can a sharp rise in fuel prices in Russia affect Kazakhstan? Orda.kz reports on potential risks for the domestic market.

How Much Has Gasoline Gone Up in Russia?

According to Kommersant, rising prices and shortages prompted the Russian government to extend its fuel export ban until March 31.

On commodity exchanges, wholesale prices are breaking records: AI-95 has climbed to 82.2 thousand rubles per ton (about 548.8 thousand tenge), while AI-92 has reached 72.5 thousand rubles (484 thousand tenge).

In several Russian regions, fuel supply interruptions have already been reported. In Crimea, annexed by Russia, local authorities acknowledged shortages at gas stations. In Moscow, a liter of AI-95 now costs between 64 and 80 rubles (427–534 tenge).

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy insists that Russia’s price surge will not directly impact the domestic market.

Still, given Kazakhstan’s partial reliance on Russian imports, certain risks remain.

The Risk

The main concern is fuel smuggling. The widening price gap encourages Kazakhstani smugglers to buy gasoline domestically and resell it across the border at a premium. Despite bans on petroleum product exports in both countries, the illegal trade continues to thrive.

With Russian prices rising further, smuggling becomes even more profitable. Analysts warn that this could trigger fuel shortages in Kazakhstan this fall.

Russia’s export ban has been in place since 2024, but Astana still receives limited volumes under a bilateral agreement. For 2025, the quota allows Kazakhstan to import 285,000 tons of motor gasoline, 300,000 tons of jet fuel, 450,000 tons of diesel, and 500,000 tons of bitumen.

Oil analyst Artur Shahnazaryan, however, doubts Moscow would restrict these supplies:

There is no point for the Russians to change anything. You can’t cancel geography. This fuel comes from Siberian refineries — effectively an exchange. The quota is 1.12 million tons, covering motor fuel, jet fuel, and fuel oil. In addition, ‘Condensate’ in West Kazakhstan, owned by Tatneft, is permitted to export 225,000 tons of gasoline outside the EAEU, he explained.

Will Prices Rise in Kazakhstan?

Shahnazaryan notes that although Russia won’t deliberately pressure Kazakhstan, the economies are closely linked, and Russian fuel prices will inevitably influence the Kazakh market.

The rise in Russian prices will, of course, pull ours up. At wholesale points, fuel here is already rising. But our refineries are still managing deliveries,  he said.

He expects the impact to show in the coming months but stresses it should not be overstated:

Despite Kazakhstan’s gradual move to free pricing, the fuel market remains under state regulation. Authorities still direct refineries on how much gasoline to send to specific regions to stabilize supply.

It’s not a fully free market. These interventions remain necessary because of price gaps with neighbors. Regulation has eased somewhat in the past year and a half, but the system largely remains, Shahnazaryan noted.

Fuel prices in Kazakhstan, meanwhile, have already begun rising independently of Russia. Earlier reports pointed out that prices continued climbing in the first half of 2025 despite record-high domestic production.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny