What Will Happen to Gasoline Prices in Kazakhstan? Expert Outlines Three Scenarios

Buyers of AI‑95 and AI‑98 gasoline in Kazakhstan effectively subsidize the low price of AI‑92, Orda.kz reports, citing Olzhas Baidildinov.

A liter of AI‑92 costs an average of 235 tenge, while AI‑95 costs 320 tenge — a difference of 36%. For comparison, in Russia the gap between grades is 7–10%, and in the UAE it is 3–5%.

I don't understand why buyers of newer, more environmentally friendly and economical cars should overpay and subsidize losses on AI‑92.the expert noted.

He believes that the previous model of keeping fuel prices in check has exhausted itself. Problems have been accumulating for a long time, and regulation no longer ensures balance. In Russia, for example, gasoline becomes more expensive annually at the rate of inflation or higher. In Kazakhstan, inflation has always outpaced fuel price growth.

The situation is aggravated by logistics. Oil product consumption is growing in the south of the country, and the Shymkent refinery does not cover all demand. Some fuel is transported from the Atyrau refinery by rail. Meanwhile, the transportation tariff has increased from 36,000 to 64,000 tenge per ton — almost 1.8 times. And a further increase in KTZ tariffs lies ahead; the company has requested a 38% hike in freight rates.

The domestic market continues to depend on Russian supplies. The fuel shortage is gradually growing. The expert considers expanding the Shymkent refinery or building a fourth plant unrealistic — there is simply no oil in Kazakhstan for that. Either global prices would need to be higher, or the largest production consortia — TCO, KPO and NCOC — would have to start supplying the domestic market.

Original author: Alexander Zhdanov

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