Kazakhstan’s Flour Export to the US Overstated, Economist Says

Several government agencies — from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — recently announced with enthusiasm that Kazakhstan's flour had entered the American market.

The news was presented as a major breakthrough for domestic producers. In reality, however, the situation is more complex, Orda.kz reports.

Export Figures

Economist Ruslan Sultanov, writing on his Telegram channel Tengenomika, noted that reports of a “remarkable success” by Qostanay flour millers are overstated:

Attempts to enter new markets — Moldova, Georgia, the UAE, and Israel — have yielded no tangible results. Against this backdrop, domestic media reported a "breakthrough"— the first shipments of Kazakh flour to the United States. Indeed, this was the case: 48 tons worth $30,000 were shipped in April. I wonder what role the organization "supporting exports" plays in this. 

Small Share of Exports

The volume is negligible: 0.01% of Kazakhstan’s total flour exports.

While theoretically Kazakh flour could be competitive (exported at $250–300 per ton versus the US’s average import price, three times higher), duties, packaging, and especially logistics costs erase any potential advantage.

As a result, US buyers are unlikely to focus on Kazakh flour, and domestic producers have little incentive to export far abroad when they can sell closer to home with similar margins.

It’s premature to talk about entering the US market as a strategic success. If deliveries don’t become regular and significant in volume, this will remain a one-off — more profitable to present as a ‘victory’ than to acknowledge the limitations of our export capabilities. For Kazakhstan, the key task isn’t one-off ‘sensations,’ but systemic market diversification, which will reduce dependence on a small group of countries and strengthen our position in the long term, Sultanov concluded.

Earlier this year, Orda.kz reported that demand for Kazakh flour was already declining, with the country shifting from exporting finished goods to raw materials.

Even Kazakh grain itself is losing ground among foreign buyers.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny