Kazakhstan Faces a Sharp Demographic Shift as the Population Ages

Population aging in Kazakhstan is accelerating. The aging index, which shows how many pensioners there are for every 100 children, rose from 26.7 in 2021 to 32.9 in 2025. That means there are now almost 33 elderly people for every 100 children, Orda.kz reports.

Cities are aging the fastest: there, the indicator increased from 28.8 to 34.9. In rural areas, the growth is also noticeable, from 23.9 to 29.6. The gap between generations is narrowing across the country, the researchers said.

The most difficult situation is in the north and the center. In the North Kazakhstan region, the index reached 84.1; in the East Kazakhstan region, 80.7; and in the Kostanay region, 71.3. In these regions, the number of elderly people is already approaching the number of children. The age structure is also challenging in the Pavlodar region at 60.2, the Karaganda region at 56.6, and the Akmola region at 54.2. The youngest regions remain Mangystau at 16.2, the Turkestan region at 17.2, Shymkent at 17, and the Atyrau region at 20.7, although the figures are rising there as well.

Another factor is the falling birth rate. In 2025, the rate dropped to 16.4 per 1,000 people, compared with 23.5 in 2021, almost a one-third decline. In cities, the indicator fell from 23.2 to 15.8; in rural areas, from 23.8 to 17.5. The lowest levels were recorded in the North Kazakhstan region at 9, the Kostanay region at 10, and the East Kazakhstan region at 10.5. Even in traditionally younger regions such as the Turkestan region at 22.2 and Mangystau at 21.4, birth rates are declining.

As a result, the population is still growing, but it is also getting older. The share of elderly people is rising, the burden on working-age citizens is increasing, and the future labor force is shrinking. Analysts say pressure on the labor market, health care and the social system will only grow, and without systemic solutions the situation will become more costly and more difficult.

Original author: Alexander Smolin

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