Analysts Warn That Rising Costs Are Eating Into Kazakhstanis’ Incomes

Kazakhstanis lose independent sources of income — citizens actually «eat» money, losing access to tools for accumulation and qualitative growth of living standards. At the same time, the huge gap between rich and poor regions creates risks of further tension, Orda.kz reports, citing Finprom.kz analysts.

The cash incomes of the population of Kazakhstan are nominally growing, but even official data do not show the most rosy picture, experts noted. By the end of 2025, the average per capita income reached 1.5 million tenge, an increase of 9,2% over the year. At the same time, expenses grew faster: by 9,9%, to 1.3 million tenge.

This is a fundamental shift: incomes no longer form a margin of safety, but are practically catched up with consumption. In January-December last year, the incomes of the population exceeded expenses by 12,6%, compared to 13,4% for the same period of 2024.

The current dynamics of monetary incomes of the population is clearly negative. The formal growth of the indicator is completely absorbed by the leading growth of costs. The economic model of the family in Kazakhstan is being transformed into a deficit one: income from entrepreneurship and property is degrading, and dependence on social payments and pensions is growing critically.analysts believe.

From the data provided, it follows that the regional section emphasizes the depth of imbalances. Thus, the maximum incomes for January — December 2025 were recorded in Astana and Karaganda region (two million tenge per person), as well as in Almaty (1.9 million tenge). At the same time, in the Turkestan region, the indicator was only 922.4 thousand tenge.

At the same time, the most alarming situation was observed in the Zhetysu region, where the incomes of the population were 5,8% less than spending, which means direct «eating» of resources, and this is the only region with a negative balance. Zhambyl region was also on the verge, where there was virtually no margin of safety (revenues exceeded expenses by only 0,9%), and Pavlodar region (by two percent).

The situation was the best in Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions, where revenues exceeded expenses by 31,9% and 30,9%, respectively. At the same time, analysts believe that increasing the dependence of the population on the labor market and reducing the diversification of income sources, like any shocks, directly affects the standard of living.

Additional sources of income continue to degrade. Property income decreased both in absolute values (by 21,3%) and in structure. This means the compression of the financial cushion.experts concluded. 

Original author: Alexander Smolin

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