Six Years of Toqayev’s Presidency: Achievements and Transformations

In 2019, Kazakhstan entered a new political era as the country saw its first transition of power in nearly three decades. The departure of Nursultan Nazarbayev and the rise of Qasym-Jomart Toqayev ushered in significant political and economic transformations.

Now, six years later, experts and politicians are evaluating this period, analyzing reforms, economic progress, and shifts in governance. The editorial team at Orda.kz has compiled their key insights.

On March 20, 2019, a new President was unexpectedly introduced to a country accustomed to nearly 30 years of uninterrupted leadership. Nazarbayev announced his resignation, transferring the presidency to Toqayev, a seasoned diplomat and pragmatic politician. While there had been long-standing rumors about a succession plan, few believed that power would actually change hands.

Toqayev’s emergence as Kazakhstan’s leader was largely accepted, even among moderate opposition figures, who had initially been skeptical of any handpicked successor. Meanwhile, some ministers and deputies who once praised Nazarbayev later fiercely criticized his governance.

One of Toqayev’s first defining moves was holding elections, a departure from the heavily controlled political processes of the past. The snap elections on June 9, 2019, saw Toqayev winning 70.96% of the vote, while his main opponent, opposition figure Amirzhan Kosanov, secured 16.23%. 

Even before the January 2022 unrest, Toqayev’s leadership style had noticeably diverged from that of his predecessor. His foreign policy approach revitalized Kazakhstan’s global engagement, while his internal political decisions signaled a break from the past.

A notable example was the 2020 removal of Dariga Nazarbayeva as Senate chairperson — a move many analysts saw as an early indication of Toqayev’s political independence from the Nazarbayev clan.

Bektenov: Six Years of Progress

Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov recently outlined the country’s key achievements under Toqayev’s presidency, emphasizing that despite major global challenges — such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and internal struggles — Kazakhstan has reached new levels of development.

Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth and Diversification Under Toqayev

By the end of 2024, Kazakhstan’s GDP reached $288 billion, with per capita income exceeding $14,000, an increase of nearly 50%, according to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. This marks a significant step toward achieving high-income status, reflecting President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev’s focus on economic diversification and reducing dependence on oil.

Bektenov highlights that manufacturing output grew by 31.4% while the construction sector expanded by 96.3%. The share of manufacturing enterprises in the economy is now equal to that of the mining sector, showing a shift toward non-resource-driven growth.

These claims align with official data from the Bureau of National Statistics, which reported that January – June 2024 GDP totaled 52.3 trillion tenge (approximately $288 billion annually). Additionally, per capita GDP for January – September 2024 stood at $9,204.3, indicating a strong likelihood of surpassing $14,000 by year-end.

Industrial Growth and Investments

Bektenov highlights notable industrial achievements, particularly in mechanical engineering, which has tripled in production over six years. In 2024 alone, passenger car production grew from 30,000 to 134,000 units, truck production rose from 1,000 to 7,100 units, and bus manufacturing increased to 2,900 units. 

The petrochemical sector also saw progress with the launch of the KPI plant in Atyrau — the largest in Central Asia — which now produces polypropylene. The country has transitioned toward high-value-added products like polymers and composite materials.

Investments and Foreign Trade

Over the past six years, Kazakhstan has attracted $130 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), with $72.7 billion directed toward the processing industry, according to Bektenov. He attributes this to strong investor confidence, backed by Moody’s Baa1 ("Stable") credit rating.

Foreign trade turnover grew 1.5 times, rising from $94.8 billion to $141.4 billion, while exports increased from $61.1 billion to $81.6 billion. Notably, exports of processed goods reached $28.8 billion, nearly double the 2018 figure.

The share of raw materials in exports declined from 74.5% to 63.5%, reflecting a shift toward a more diverse economy. These figures are in line with data from the Ministry of National Economy, confirming significant progress in these sectors.

Social Policies and Infrastructure Development

Toqayev has prioritized social welfare and infrastructure improvements. Bektenov notes that the minimum wage has doubled, rising from 42,500 to 85,000 tenge, benefiting two million people.

In the past six years, 97.8 million square meters of housing have been built, significantly improving living conditions for thousands of families. The housing construction sector grew by 51.4%, and heat infrastructure depreciation was reduced from 71% to 61%.

Plans are also underway to introduce 7 GW of new energy capacity, modernizing Kazakhstan’s energy and utilities sector. These figures largely correspond with the data provided by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population.

Agriculture and Domestic Production

He also highlights that gross agricultural output grew 1.8 times to 8.3 trillion tenge, while labor productivity in the agro-industrial sector doubled. Toqayev has also strengthened support for domestic producers, ensuring that Kazakh-made machinery, construction materials, and food products are prioritized in government procurement.

The record 2024 grain harvest coincides with reported weather conditions and government subsidies. The claim of 2.5 trillion tenge in agricultural subsidies appears plausible, as 400 billion tenge is allocated annually. While exact GDP figures for the full year are not yet available, the projected growth in the agro-industrial sector aligns with Bektenov's claims.

Kazakhstan’s International Standing and Long-Term Growth

Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov highlights Kazakhstan’s growing international recognition, citing UN data that ranks the country as the second-largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) among landlocked nations.

He attributes this success to President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev’s active diplomacy, which has expanded trade and economic partnerships.

Looking ahead, Bektenov notes that investments managed through the Baiterek holding company are expected to reach 10 trillion tenge by 2027, further driving economic growth and development.

Reflecting on the past six years, he emphasizes that Toqayev has built a strong foundation for sustainable progress, balancing economic expansion, social policies, and infrastructure modernization.

Kazakhstan is demonstrating steady growth while maintaining the potential for even more ambitious achievements, he concludes. 

Koshanov: Kazakhstan Has Moved Beyond Nazarbayev’s Super-Presidential System

Majilis Speaker Erlan Koshanov acknowledged that Kazakhstan operated under a super-presidential system for 30 years but argued that this concentration of power in the hands of a single leader and a select group led to public frustration and hindered the country’s development.

Three years ago, it was critical to begin modernizing the political system and move away from a structure where all power was centralized, Koshanov stated. 

He noted that while power redistribution often sparks controversy in many countries, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev voluntarily initiated reforms, transferring some presidential powers to other institutions and introducing a one-time, seven-year presidential term.

He said this has reshaped the country’s political system and created a more balanced governance model.

Today, alongside the President, we have a renewed, empowered, and trusted parliament, government, Constitutional Court, and political parties,Koshanov added. 

He also emphasized that Kazakhstan is evolving into a social state where decisions are guided by law and justice is no longer just a slogan but a reality.

Koshanov’s claims align with several political changes made under Toqayev’s leadership. The simplified registration process for political parties reduced the required membership threshold from 40,000 to 20,000, allowing new political movements to enter the arena.

By 2023, seven parties, including newly registered ones, participated in parliamentary elections.

Toqayev bolstered the parliament by reducing the number of senators appointed by the president. The President also lost the authority to overturn decisions made by regional Akims, giving local governments greater autonomy.

The introduction of a single seven-year term prevents any single leader from dominating the political system long-term.

Gaziz Abishev: Kazakhstan’s Political Evolution Leaves No Room for "Triple-Roped" Governance

Political analyst Gaziz Abishev sees March 16, 2022, as a pivotal moment in Kazakhstan’s political transformation. He argues that by 2021, the Constitution — burdened by amendments from 2007 and 2016 — had stripped the system of flexibility and created conditions for power centralization.

Everything was triple-roped, while legislation was full of loopholes for the so-called right people,Abishev remarks. 

The reform process launched under President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev has opened the door to political competition and weakened the grip of party influence on the government.

However, he stresses that the success of these transformations depends on whether political forces take full advantage of these opportunities.

One of the most significant reforms, according to Abishev, was the introduction of a non-partisan status for the President, Constitutional Court judges, and members of the Central Election Commission.

This move, he argues, positions the head of state as a neutral arbiter, ensuring that political parties must genuinely compete for public support rather than rely on state favoritism.

Another key shift has been electoral reform, including the return of the majoritarian system in elections to the Majilis (lower house of parliament) and regional maslikhats.

Regional maslikhats are now elected half by districts, while lower maslikhats are entirely by single-mandate districts,Abishev notes. 

According to Abishev, the 2022 reforms are specifically designed to prevent elite family and clan-based groups from consolidating power. The result, he suggests, will be a more sustainable and competitive political system where influence must be earned through competence, not connections.

The reforms aim to crystallize a stable, state-driven, yet politically diverse system of governance,he concludes. 

Beyond analyzing current changes, Abishev has his own ideas for strengthening civic engagement. One proposal is to enhance the role of online petitions, ensuring they are not just a signature collection tool but a mechanism for legislative consideration.

This would give real meaning to online petitions and reinforce the role of parliament,he argues. 

Deputies on Reforms: "No One Would Have Believed It"

Kazakhstan's deputies discussed the recent wave of reforms in the Majilis today, reflecting on changes that once seemed unimaginable. Askhat Aimagambetov noted that six years ago, few could have imagined that teachers’ salaries would double or that all primary school students would receive free meals.

If someone had said back then that blue-collar workers would receive state awards from Aqorda or that every child in the country would have money deposited into their accounts from the National Fund, no one would have believed them,he remarked. 

Now, he says, people see these changes as the norm. He emphasized that higher pay and prestige in education have increased competition for teaching positions. He also highlighted the Comfortable School program, which aims to equalize education standards between cities and villages. The initiative has already resulted in the construction of 217 new schools nationwide.

Aidarbek Khodzhanazarov, leader of the Respublica party, stated that Kazakhstan is no longer a closed political system, and barriers to competition have been dismantled.

Political reform has expanded competition and opened the way for new forces. The threshold for party registration has been lowered, the entry barrier to parliament has been reduced, and a majoritarian-proportional system has been introduced,he explained. 

He pointed to his own party’s successful entry into parliament and maslikhats as proof of this new political landscape. Khodzhanazarov also highlighted economic changes, including reducing state intervention in business and encouraging private enterprise.

For a long time, the market was held back by excessive state participation. Now, that’s changing. Hundreds of state assets are being privatized,he added. 

Askhat Rakhimzhanov argued that recent political changes have expanded dialogue and reduced social tensions.

In the past, we heard about political activists being detained and campaign materials being confiscated. Now, citizens' political will is being expressed through proper institutional channels,he noted. 

The 2022 constitutional reforms, he added, implemented long-standing opposition demands, including elected akims and a mixed electoral system.

The real opposition is now part of the legislative process. These last three years have marked a point of no return to the old ways of governing, he emphasized, adding that Kazakhstan is now viewed as a more open and democratic country on the international stage.

Original Author: Artyom Volkov