Kazakhstan's National Bank Keeps Interest Rate at 16.5%, No Cuts Expected Until 2026

On July 11, the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced its decision to maintain the base interest rate at 16.5%, with no changes expected until at least 2026, reports Orda.kz.

National Bank Head Timur Suleimenov stated that in light of continued price pressures, the regulator will maintain a tight monetary policy through the end of 2025.

Oil prices are trending closer to our optimistic scenario. Inflation remains within the forecast range — 10.5–12.5% for the year, Suleimenov said.

He noted that several factors are contributing to inflation: sustained domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, active consumer lending, elevated inflation expectations, and ongoing reforms in tariffs, pricing, and fiscal policy.

This means we must maintain the current level of tight monetary policy longer than previously expected. With high probability, the base rate will remain unchanged through the end of this year, the central bank head emphasized.

Suleimenov added that the regulator will continue to monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments closely, but no policy easing is planned in the coming months.

Original Author: Ilya Astakhov