Kazakhstan May Struggle to Profit from Boosted Oil Exports — Halyk Finance Warns

Kazakhstan is set to increase oil production in 2025, primarily due to expansion at the Tengiz field, Orda.kz reports.

Despite the expected rise in oil exports, analysts at Halyk Finance caution that falling global oil prices could dampen financial gains for Kazakhstan.

In its latest market review, Halyk Finance highlighted that Kazakhstan’s oil production boost comes at a time of oversupply in the global market, driving prices lower.

By mid-year, the full launch of the expansion project at Tengiz is expected, which should lead to an increase in exports. Against this background, the country will most likely not be able to fulfill its obligations under OPEC+. However, this effect may be partially offset by the volatility of oil prices. According to World Bank forecasts, global commodity prices should fall to a five-year low in 2025 due to excess oil supply,
 Sanzhar Kaldarov, Halyk Finance analyst 

Projections suggest that oil prices will remain low in 2026, with supply expected to exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels daily. Analysts recommend that Kazakhstan focus on non-resource exports, particularly high-tech industries, to reduce dependence on oil revenues.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade balance is shifting, with experts predicting higher imports and rising inflation in 2025.

The forecast scenarios indicate a moderate increase in imports in Kazakhstan in 2025, due to the growth of budget expenditures for the implementation of infrastructure and investment projects. At the same time, the volatility of the tenge exchange rate and the acceleration of inflation may make additional adjustments. According to the forecast of the National Bank, by the end of 2025, annual inflation will be around 10-12%, which coincides with our forecasts,
Sanzhar Kaldarov

In January 2025, Kazakhstan’s export volume dropped by 13.6% year-on-year to $5.1 billion, while imports declined by 5.8% to $4 billion.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny