What Trump's New Tariffs Mean for Kazakhstan

On April 3, Donald Trump introduced new trade duties on imported goods, with Kazakhstan among the countries affected. Kazakhstan's rate was set at 27%. Orda.kz delves into what this means for the country and whether these tariffs are an opportunity.

What Happened?

Kazakhstan has been added to the list of countries facing additional import duties under Trump's administration, with a 27% tariff rate. Among Central Asian countries, this is the highest tariff imposed, though it is still lower compared to other nations.

For instance, Cambodia faces 49%, Vietnam 46%, and China 34%. In comparison, Kazakhstan's rate aligns more closely with major U.S. trading partners like India (26%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%).

Russia, however, is not on the list, which is not surprising given the long-standing sanctions imposed on the country, limiting trade.

Economist Rasul Rysmambetov suggests that Kazakhstan has little reason to be alarmed. Even if the U.S. were to impose severe tariffs, the impact would likely be minimal for Kazakhstan.

The 27% tariff the U.S. plans to impose on Kazakh imports won’t really affect our exports. Most of our goods fall under the category of strategic materials, which are exempt from duties under a presidential exception,he explains. 

Will Kazakhstan Be Affected?

Initially, concerns focused on Kazakhstan’s key exports, particularly oil and uranium.

However, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade quickly clarified that most raw material exports, including oil, uranium ore, silver, and ferroalloys, are not subject to the new tariffs. Even if these goods became less profitable in the U.S. market, alternative markets are always available.

These restrictions impact trade worth just over $95 million, which, in the grand scheme of things, is a relatively small figure for Kazakhstan. Our overall trade turnover with the U.S. isn’t that large — around $4.2 billion, with about $2 billion of that being exports. So, these new duties won’t significantly affect our trade with the U.S. The core volume remains untouched, and if current trends continue, we’re likely to see similar figures next year, political scientist Zamir Karazhanov told Orda.kz.

The expert points out that even if the new U.S. tariffs hit Kazakhstani uranium and oil, it wouldn’t be hard to find alternative buyers. These resources are consistently in high demand on the global market.

That’s why companies like Kazatomprom — which sends 70% of its uranium to the U.S. — and Kazzinc, with 39% of its silver exports headed there, have little to worry about. The same goes for exports like coal, titanium, copper, and zinc ore, which are also exempt. And even in the case of oil, rerouting away from the U.S. market wouldn’t be difficult if it ever became necessary.

However, the situation differs for companies like BioOperations LLP, Kazakhstan’s only wheat gluten and starch producer. The U.S. is a key market for the company. Unfortunately, gluten isn’t exempt from the new tariffs, which means BioOperations might need to rethink its export strategy and start seeking new markets.

Other companies could also feel the impact. The ERG group, which sends over half its ferrosilicon exports to the U.S., is now facing the same tariffs. The duties also apply to ammonium nitrate from KazAzot and phosphorus products from Kazphosphate LLP.

While none of these companies have publicly stated that the new U.S. trade policy is harming their business, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade has already announced plans to begin talks with the U.S. in hopes of getting the additional duties lifted.

What Should Kazakhstani Exporters Do?

Political analyst Zamir Karazhanov believes that for Kazakhstan's companies that have heavily relied on the U.S. market, Trump’s new tariffs could serve as a push to seek out trade partners closer to home. More broadly, he says, America’s ongoing trade wars are likely to accelerate the formation of stronger regional markets.

We’re in an interesting position when it comes to foreign trade. For a long time, we focused on doing business with far-off countries, but the more sensible strategy is to trade with our immediate neighbors. Over the past three to five years, we’ve already been shifting our focus to the region. And when it comes to finding new markets, the most logical place to start is right here.Karazhanov explains. 

Kazakhstan is already pivoting toward closer cooperation with other Central Asian nations. The result could be deeper trade ties with neighboring countries, spurred on by the fallout of U.S. protectionist policies.

If we manage to build strong trade and economic links within the region, we’ll be able to cushion the impact of global trade tensions and political power plays through mutual cooperation. And honestly, raising $95 million in our own region is far from impossible,Karazhanov says 

In short, Trump’s trade restrictions are pushing not only rivals but also America’s traditional partners to explore other avenues for cooperation.

For Kazakhstan, this could open the door to expanding trade with countries like China or the European Union —especially timely.

Incidentally, President Toqayev is attending the Central Asia–EU summit in Samarqand.

What Should Consumers Expect?

For everyday Kazakhstani consumers, the impact of US tariffs could mean higher prices on imported American goods.

Companies will need some time to redirect their supply chains to other markets. The products we import from the U.S. include cars, various types of equipment, and of course, our beloved Apple devices — which, even if assembled elsewhere, are still seen as American. These ongoing tariff wars are bound to push up the prices of such goods. Supply chains will get more complicated, costs will rise, and it’s inevitable that Apple and other companies will pass those costs on to consumers. The markets have already reacted to this: many American companies' stocks have shown negative trends. In the end, all of this hits the consumer and affects demand, says oil and gas expert Olzhas Baidildinov. 

Economist Rasul Rysmambetov, however, sees a potential silver lining for Kazakhstan. He suggests that Trump's tariffs could fuel inflation in the U.S., which might weaken the dollar and, in turn, strengthen the tenge.

In theory, some goods might even get cheaper for us. Countries targeted by these tariffs will be looking for new markets, and Kazakhstan could end up with better deals on things like equipment, metals, vehicles, and construction materials. That could actually benefit both businesses and consumers here. Of course, we’re not a replacement for the U.S. market, but among CIS countries, Kazakhstan is attractive — maybe not in terms of volume, but certainly in terms of pricing,he explains. 

Will Relations with The U.S. Worsen?

One way or another, the White House has handed Kazakhstan a fresh opportunity to practice its diplomatic balancing act and its trademark multi-vector foreign policy.

If things go well, Kazakh diplomats might persuade the U.S. to ease or even lift the tariffs — perhaps in return for strategic incentives like access to rare earth minerals. If not, the government will face the challenge of finding new markets and building more profitable trade relationships elsewhere.

We’ve taken a minor hit — it just sounds dramatic because of the 27% figure. In reality, this point can simply be ignored, because there is no point in fighting Trump now. Why should Kazakhstan dive headfirst into this trade war? says political analyst Zamir Karazhanov.  

Still, the unpredictability of Trump’s policies remains a concern.

There’s always the risk that more aggressive moves could follow, potentially targeting vital exports like oil or uranium. That’s why experts say it’s essential to strengthen business ties with U.S. partners now and address potential issues before they escalate.

Overall, there is nothing good about this, of course. But it’s also a diplomatic test for Kazakhstan. We need to actively engage through diplomatic channels and aim to bring our tariff status to at least be in line with countries like Uzbekistan. It’s essential to communicate clearly with the new U.S. administration — to show that Kazakhstan respects sanctions and maintains good relationships with American businesses. If we can achieve that, it would be a real win for our diplomacy,says Olzhas Baidildinov.  

Original Author: Nikita Drobny