Putin’s Kazakhstan Visit: Routine Diplomacy Or Political Signal?

Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a state visit to Kazakhstan on May 27–29. The trip has attracted attention not only because of the meeting itself, but also because of its status, Orda.kz reports.

Political scientists point to one detail: this will be Putin’s second state visit to Kazakhstan during his current presidential term, although such cases are rare in diplomatic practice. Usually, state leaders make a state visit to the same country only once during one term.

Orda.kz spoke with political scientists to understand why the trip was given such status, what topics may be at the center of negotiations, and whether Kazakhstan should expect changes after the meeting of the two leaders.

Second State Visit: Political Signal Or Routine Diplomacy?

According to political scientist Tair Nigmanov, if the visit were only about participation in Eurasian Economic Union events, an official or working visit would have been enough.

A state visit is the highest status. There is an unspoken tradition: during one presidential term, a leader usually makes a state visit to the same country only once. You can visit Russia, China, the United States, Germany, and other countries, but repeating a state visit to the same country is extremely rare. In the case of Kazakhstan and Russia, we are seeing the second such visit. This shows how highly the parties value the current level of relations. If the task were only to participate in the EAEU event, a working or official format would be enough,he said.

Nigmanov believes such a format cannot be seen only as protocol. In his view, symbols in international politics often matter as much as signed documents.

The main task of such visits is not only negotiations. Symbols are very important in international relations. Such a visit shows the allied nature of relations between states and demonstrates that the countries are ready to maintain close contacts even amid serious international turbulence,Nigmanov added.

Political scientist Talgat Kaliyev, however, says there is no need to look for hidden signals in everything. According to him, close cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia has long been a routine part of the political and economic life of both countries.

Given the length of the state border between Kazakhstan and Russia, which is considered the longest in the world, as well as close economic ties, similar infrastructure, and cooperation in energy and other areas, such contacts are quite natural. Each visit is important because it allows the sides to constantly compare positions and quickly resolve emerging issues,he said.

At the same time, Kaliyev admits that state-visit status still implies a specific agenda and certain results.

This format usually involves signing agreements and preparing new arrangements. Therefore, it is quite possible to expect some new documents and decisions,he said.

What Will The Leaders Discuss?

Experts differ in their views on the agenda of the talks.

Kaliyev believes the parties will focus on the economy and energy. According to him, several major projects in relations between the two countries already require decisions.

First of all, we are talking about the construction of a nuclear power plant near Balkhash, as well as the project of three thermal power plants, which has now effectively been put on pause. In addition, there are issues of education, the work of Russian universities, the opening of schools, and mutual recognition of educational programs,Kaliyev said.

Nigmanov believes state visits are almost never limited to a few issues, especially when government representatives and major companies are part of the delegations.

The main idea of a state visit is that it covers a wide range of negotiations. Usually, a very representative delegation arrives. If we recall state visits of recent years, they include representatives of the government, national companies, and major economic players. Therefore, I think almost the entire range of interaction will be discussed: energy, transport, sanctions-related issues, cooperation in an unstable international environment, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the safety of transport routes,Nigmanov said.

He added that transport projects are also on the agenda, as Russia is now paying close attention to the North–South corridor while also discussing gas supplies through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan.

New Projects Or Saving Old Ones?

Nigmanov believes new initiatives are possible, but says it is better not to predict specific decisions in advance.

I do not like to guess. I do not know what issues are being discussed through closed channels, which topics are already at the final stage, and what decisions are being prepared. It is much easier to evaluate the results after the meeting,he said.

Kaliyev believes it is more important for Kazakhstan to complete existing projects.

The depth of our relations is already high. If we talk about major investments, I do not have high expectations. Rather, we are talking about preserving the existing level of cooperation. It is important for us to complete the projects that have already begun. Perhaps the parties will discuss oil transportation and issues related to the situation around Russian ports,he said.

How Could The Visit Affect Kazakhstan?

Experts assess the possible consequences for Kazakhstan differently, although they agree on one point: a sharp turn in relations should not be expected.

Nigmanov believes Kazakhstan will continue its multi-vector foreign policy and will not change its role in relations with major players.

The main idea of our foreign policy is predictability. Kazakhstan should remain a clear partner. It is important for us to maintain stability and not become dependent on one direction. You cannot put everything in one basket. That is why multi-vector policy remains one of the key tasks of our foreign policy,he said.

Kaliyev holds a similar view and believes the current international situation only strengthens the importance of this approach.

For Kazakhstan, multi-vector policy has always been a priority. Today, when global polarization is increasing and international turbulence is growing, this approach shows not only its relevance, but also the practical absence of alternatives,he said.

Despite their different assessments of the state visit, both political scientists agree that the upcoming meeting is unlikely to mark the beginning of drastic changes. Nigmanov sees it primarily as a strong political symbol and a demonstration of allied relations. Kaliyev looks at the situation from a practical angle and notes that close cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia has long been part of daily diplomatic work.

The fact that this is Putin’s second state visit to Kazakhstan during one presidential term already makes the meeting stand out from the usual diplomatic calendar.

Original author: Alina Elgeldina

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