National Bank Survey: Analysts Raise Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts for 2025

Experts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan have lowered their expectations for the economy, projecting higher inflation and a steeper base rate through 2025, Orda.kz reports.

The central bank questioned 16 organizations in the country’s financial market on key indicators, including oil prices, GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, trade volumes, and the tenge exchange rate. Respondents were more pessimistic in their latest outlook.

Average annual inflation is now expected to reach about 12% in 2025, compared to 11.3% in the previous forecast. Analysts see inflation easing to 10% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, versus earlier estimates of 9.5% and 6.5%.

The base rate forecast was revised upward to 16.6% in 2025, before falling to 14.8% in 2026 and 12% in 2027.

Oil prices are projected to average $69 per barrel next year and gradually decline, but Kazakhstan’s economy is still expected to expand by 5.6% in 2025.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny