Officials Respond to Discrepancies in Kazakhstan’s Grain Data

The results of Kazakhstan’s 2025 grain harvest have stirred debate, as several experts question official figures and point to inconsistencies with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts and the country’s elevator capacity, Orda.kz reports.

The USDA regularly tracks global crop conditions using satellite monitoring and modeling. However, according to Deputy Minister of Agriculture Azat Sultanov, discrepancies between its forecasts and Kazakhstan’s official data are not unusual.

This system is an international benchmark, but even with a high degree of technology and scientific approach, USDA forecasts cannot be completely accurate, since they are based on probabilistic models sensitive to weather, soil, and regional characteristics,
 Sultanov explained.

He added that even the most advanced satellite data cannot account for local anomalies or differences in moisture levels, meaning the vegetation index does not always match real yields.

This year, the ministry reported a total grain harvest of 27.1 million tons, with the following breakdown:

• Licensed elevator occupancy: 48% (6.3 million tons)
• Exports: 2.2 million tons
• Stored by farmers: 17.4 million tons
• Used for processing: 700,000 tons
• Used for feed: over 500,000 tons

Sultanov noted that a significant portion of the crop is stored at flour mills, in temporary grain storage facilities, or directly in the fields using “sleeve” storage technology — a practice gaining popularity among farmers.

According to the ministry, Kazakhstan still has around seven million tons of available grain storage capacity, ruling out speculation about a “mysterious disappearance” of the harvest. The grain, officials say, has simply been distributed across multiple storage and processing channels.

As the harvest season ends, the Ministry of Agriculture is already outlining support measures for farmers in 2025.

Original Author: Alina Pak