"Off Course": Exclusive Photographic Evidence and Analysis of Drones That Crashed in Kazakhstan

Drones have recently been discovered in different parts of Kazakhstan.

UAV specialist Tair Balbayev spoke with Orda.kz, sharing technical analysis and photos to determine the drones' origins.

Tair Balbayev is an engineer and one of Kazakhstan’s early developers of unmanned systems. He has experience creating drones for law enforcement and public service agencies and heads a company focused on UAV and remote monitoring technologies.

The Mangystau Incident 

In mid-June 2025, residents in Mangystau reported seeing a drone flying at low altitude. Hours later, a small UAV was found in the steppe. Some pro-Russian Telegram channels quickly identified it as a British Banshee Jet 80, framing it as evidence of Western involvement in regional destabilization.

Balbayev explained that the drone found in Kazakhstan differed from a Banshee.

The real Banshee has a turbojet engine and a highly aerodynamic wing with a thin profile, designed for a cruising speed of 720 km/h. In the photo, we see a thick wing with a high profile, which is used only at relatively low speeds — 100-120 km/h. The engine here is a conventional gasoline two-stroke: probably made in China, and not a turbojet. 

He added that while the shape might loosely resemble a Banshee, there are key technical discrepancies:

It's probably just a cosmetic copy: someone — maybe the Iranians or the Russians — redesigned the Banshee's outline, but adjusted it to fit available components and a completely different engine. Such a craft simply wouldn't be able to reach half the speed of the real Banshee. 

Balbayev noted that the aircraft’s structure suggests it is a homemade or modified design rather than an imported military system.

Here we see something crude and illogical: the removal of the stabilizer does not provide any advantages and only adds instability in flight. The original Banshee deliberately removed the stabilizer — this is a well-thought-out engineering solution aimed at reducing drag and achieving high speed. The negative lift created by the stabilizer is only significant at high speeds, and at those that a two-stroke engine can develop, it does not matter and only worsens the aircraft's behavior in the air. 

The Atyrau Incident

Around the same time, another object crashed near Atyrau, triggering "diplomatic concern."

Maria Zakharova condemned the "flight of Ukrainian drones over Kazakhstan," emphasizing that Kyiv poses a threat not only to Russia. 

Balbayev examined images:

So far, everything I've seen is being produced or tested in Russia. The exception is a photo with a two-beam frame configuration: the unit looks like an example of home-made production. Most likely, these are models of an aircraft-type UAV from a new Russian manufacturer, which were tested at a Russian testing ground. This is how this aircraft flew into our steppes.

The drone’s components — including a CRPA “Kometa” GPS module, Russian-style wiring, and a matrix assembly — suggest a training model rather than a military-grade device.

This is definitely not a British Banshee or an Iranian copy. The combination of parts and the level of assembly are purely Russian. Perhaps we have a test sample from a new manufacturer.

According to Tair Balbayev, some details - especially the cut CRPA and matrix assembly - are not typical for serial products. All this strengthens the version about a test launch or testing of new components on the Russian side.

These are drones launched from a training ground on Russian territory. Russia is currently actively producing UAVs for domestic consumption — for training air defense, infantry, and assault groups to counter drones. 

Balbayev also emphasized the drone’s construction flaws, such as poor gluing and uneven surfaces, as evidence of non-commercial or test production.

These are all drones from our neighboring country, Russia. Launched from a testing ground, lost course, and slipping through their own air defenses. Nothing more.

(No) Threat Detected?

So far, none of the drones appear to have been intentionally directed at Kazakhstan. Nonetheless, such incidents involving UAVs carry risk, and Balbayev believes it is important to be prepared.

He also cautioned that drones found in Kazakhstan are often destroyed by explosives without thorough examination, meaning risk assessments may be incomplete.

Current radar systems used by the CSTO are not designed to detect small, low-flying drones. More advanced radar with shorter wavelengths and a multi-layered defense system would be needed for reliable protection, but this comes at a high financial and technical cost.

On whether UAVs could carry a payload, Balbayev said it depends entirely on the model and its capacity.

None of the drones found so far were confirmed to be armed.

Kazakhstan’s actual air defense capabilities are classified, but Balbayev has his reservations:

Israel's Iron Dome has proven its effectiveness. And the Russian system based on the C-400 in Iran is not so effective. We see UAVs regularly flying deep into Russia — under martial law and echeloned defense. Do we have a 'Dome?' Do we have centimeter-range radar? Do we have the missile stockpile to repel a massive drone attack for a month? These are the key questions.

Official Positions

Kazakhstan has maintained a reserved position.

However, Russian officials have publicly raised concerns. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that the special services of the two countries are in contact on the issue of Ukrainian drones flying over Kazakhstan.

Kazakh friends assured that they are taking the necessary measures in their contacts with the Ukrainian side to put an end to such practices,  Lavrov said.

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aibek Smadiyarov confirmed that discussions were held.

As you have seen, Mr. Lavrov has already commented that the Kazakh and Russian authorities are working very closely together on this issue. We are exchanging information at the appropriate level — between the relevant services. We stand our ground — the fact that there were launches or flights from our territory does not correspond to reality. 

Kazakhstan’s greatest challenge may not be destroying every object in its airspace, but understanding what it is and where it came from.

These are not attack drones. This does not eliminate risks, but it does not confirm them either.

There’s also the possibility of intentional disinformation: decoys could have been released to observe responses or sow confusion.

Original Author: Kamila Ermakhanova