Kazakhstan’s 2024 Budget Falls Short of Even the Worst Expectations

Kazakhstan’s 2024 republican budget fell short even of pessimistic expectations, according to Nurlan Nurzhanov, a member of the Supreme Audit Chamber, who spoke at an extended session of the Finance and Budget Committee, Orda.kz reports.

According to Nurzhanov, despite some minor improvements, the financial system remains unstable, and budget execution has proven weak and inconsistent. The state failed to meet its revenue targets. The original revenue plan was set at 16.1 trillion tenge, later revised down to 14.1 trillion — but even that lower target was missed, with a shortfall of 609 billion tenge.

Tax revenues, the primary source of state income, also declined by 5.1% compared to the previous year, or 604.6 billion tenge.

In 2024, there were some positive developments — for example, the number of violations in the use of republican budget funds dropped by 24%. However, an analysis of budget execution revealed persistent systemic issues. Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2024 reached 4.8%, falling short of the government’s forecast. Additionally, the volume of self-funded investments declined by 257 billion tenge (a 7% drop). At the same time, investments remain heavily dependent on budgetary support, which is vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity markets and overall fiscal stability — posing risks to the long-term sustainability of the country’s investment policy. Nurzhanov noted.  

The budget's dependence on transfers and borrowed funds is increasing. In 2024, nearly half of all government expenditures were covered by transfers from the National Fund and borrowed funds.

Due to a lack of liquidity in the control account, 422 billion tenge in planned spending could not be executed. The revenue forecast was revised three times, yet even the most pessimistic scenario was not achieved.

Meanwhile, the expenditure side of the budget was amended a record 13 times, affecting 6.2 trillion tenge — 26% of total spending.

Over the past 10 years, National Fund transfers have covered an average of 30% of high-risk budget expenditures. In 2024, that figure was 23.2%. The Fund received 8 trillion tenge in income, while its expenditures rose by 40% to 5.6 trillion tenge. Investment income reached 5 trillion tenge, ensuring a positive balance at the end of the year. Direct tax contributions to the Fund fell by 16.4% year-over-year. The number of companies contributing these taxes has decreased by 8.5 times, Nurzhanov noted.  

The investment landscape has also shifted, with government-backed investments declining by 257 billion tenge. Of the 912 regional projects planned for the year, only 449 were completed—less than half. Regarding budget planning, roughly 40% of all changes were made within a single quarter.

In total, the Supreme Audit Chamber uncovered 862 billion tenge in financial violations — an increase of 65% compared to 2023. While 135 billion tenge has been recovered, the ineffective management of budget programs resulted in losses of 147 billion tenge.

A total of 175 individuals and entities were held accountable.

Original Author: Artem Volkov