Kazakhstan: Analysts Raise Oil and GDP Forecasts but See Higher Inflation

Analysts surveyed by Kazakhstan’s National Bank have raised their forecasts for Brent oil prices and the country’s GDP growth in 2025, while turning more pessimistic about inflation, Orda.kz reports.

According to the regulator, experts now expect Brent crude to average $69.50 per barrel in 2025, up from the earlier forecast of $68.90. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth outlook was also revised upward — to 5.2% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 — though growth is seen slowing to 4.4% by 2027.

Inflation expectations have worsened: analysts now project 11.3% in 2025 (previously 11%) and 9.5% in 2026 (previously 9%).

The base rate is expected to stay at 16.5% next year, before easing to 14.3% in 2026.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny