Details On 2025-2027 Budget 

Two of the six parliamentary factions did not support the draft budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2025-2027, Orda.kz reports.

The drafters of the Republican budget for 2025-2027 specified at the Majilis plenary session that they used the baseline scenario, which assumes stable, moderate global economic growth rates, a decrease in inflationary factors, and stabilization in the financial and commodity markets. 

The average annual GDP growth rate for the upcoming medium term will be 5.4%. Nominal GDP is projected to grow from 150.8 trillion tenge in 2025 to 234.2 trillion tenge in 2029, as indicated in the project explanations.

In the baseline scenario, the oil price is $75 per barrel. The target annual inflation corridor is 5.5-7.5% in 2025 and 5-6% in 2026, with a subsequent reduction to 5% in 2027-2029.

The republican budget's revenue forecast (excluding transfers) for 2025 is set at 15.6 trillion tenge, or 122.8% of the current year's estimate, with an excess of 2.9 trillion tenge. 

The largest share (97.2%) in revenues is accounted for by tax revenues, a significant share of which comes from value-added tax (42.8%) and corporate income tax (33.5%).  The revenue outlook (excluding transfers) of the 2026 republican budget is projected at 16.7 trillion tenge, with an increase of 1.1 trillion or 6.8% relative to the forecast for 2025. In 2027, revenues are projected to be 18.2 trillion tenge, with growth by 2026 of 1.5 trillion tenge or 9.0%.

The guaranteed transfer amount from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2025-2027 will be 2 trillion tenge annually. A targeted transfer of 3.25 trillion tenge from the National Fund is also envisaged in 2025. 

The total republican budget expenditures are planned to be 25.7 trillion tenge in 2025, 23.1 trillion tenge in 2026, and 24.6 trillion tenge in 2027.

The Republican budget deficit for 2025 is projected to be 4.1 trillion tenge, for 2026 - 3.8 trillion tenge, and for 2027 - 3.6 trillion tenge. 

When considering the draft budget, deputies made the following proposals:

• Implement the “Aul – El Besigi” program and allocate 15 billion tenge for it
• Allocate 14.7 billion tenge to resolve water supply and sanitation issues
• More than 25 billion tenge will be allocated for other infrastructure projects

Only four of the six parliamentary factions — the Amanat, Auyl, Respublica, and People's Party of Kazakhstan parties—spoke in support of the draft three-year budget during the discussion. 

The leader of the Aq Jol faction, Azat Peruashev, recalled the President’s 2023 address that specified a new industrial policy, which will foster Kazakhstan's transition to a qualitatively new development model:

The proposed draft budget has not seen any significant changes in either the directions or instruments of budget policy. Only the percentages have changed for some parameters, and not always for the better. But it is not individual percentages that need to be changed, but the basic approaches, the economic model, as the President said. Instead, we are seeing the National Fund being eaten up. If the increase in withdrawals this year can still be justified by the restoration of damage from unprecedented floods, then further transfers raise certain doubts, said Azat Peruashev. 

According to the deputy, the proposed draft budget "lacks not only ideas but also the will to make an actual change." He stated that the Aq Jol faction did not support the bill and would abstain from voting.

The National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) also abstained. Their leader, Askhat Rakhimzhanov, supported his colleague from Aq Jol, saying that the spending of the National Fund is already causing concern. 

Recently, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov told journalists that the government 'always has big projects for what the targeted transfer will be spent on.' Officials do not want to reduce their appetites. If from 2000 to 2023, 75.4 trillion tenge were sent to the National Fund, then about 70%, or 47.8 trillion tenge, were withdrawn in the form of guaranteed and targeted transfers. The National Fund's funds are being spent rapidly; today its assets amount to just over 32 trillion tenge. In recent years, the money has been spent on current expenses, and they are growing from year to year, risking leaving future generations without a strategic financial reserve,  said Askhat Rakhimzhanov.

The OSDP faction also did not support the three-year budget project.

The chamber still supported the document by a majority vote, and the law “On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027” was adopted by the Majilis and sent to the Senate for consideration. 

Original Author: Anastasia Prilepskaya