Week in Review: Statements, Restrictions, and More...

Orda has compiled a synopsis of last week's news.

Uzbekistan and Russia: Migration Stances Shifting?

State Duma deputy Yevgeny Fyodorov, known for having questioned Kazakhstan's sovereignty, came under fire for a seemingly "pro-migrant" statement.

The deputy declared that it was safer to live next to migrants as they commit fewer crimes.  Amid the clampdown on migration, his comment alludes to a potential internal divergence in migration policies, especially considering the need for more and more workers.

It is not the first attempt to counter growing anti-immigration narratives.

Ironically, the Milliy Tiklanish party Chair, Alisher Qadyrov, declared his "support" for Russia's introduction of a visa regime for Central Asian nations, calling on the latter nations to unite and introduce one as well.

Qadirov is seen as an actor for rebuking incendiary statements openly.

On the other hand, his country seems to be abiding by Russia's new policies, considering the introduction of an internal affairs representative in the Uzbek embassy in Moscow. Qadirov also highlighted the need to prepare Uzbek labor migrants traveling abroad, potentially hinting at the reflective nature of Russia's migrant policies.

Konstantin Zatulin, deputy head of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, responded that Uzbek authorities would unlikely support Qadirov's idea, though Qadirov's initiative suggests possible frustration among Uzbek officials.

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Seeking to Utilize CSI, Lukashenko Sends Subtle Signals

At a CIS government meeting in Moscow on December 12, Tajik Prime Minister Kohir Rasulzoda seemingly signaled future attempts to sidestep joining the EAEU. He announced that Dushanbe would speed up the coordination of migration documents while chairing the CIS. 

He and his Uzbek counterpart, Abdulla Aripov, also called for freer trade among CIS nations. Neither nation is an EAEU member, nor is Turkmenistan. Many Uzbek and Tajik citizens have traditionally worked in Russia.

Lukashenko has also continued sending his own subtle signals directed at the West. The Belarussian President pardoned another 29 people sentenced over "extremism" charges.

This is the sixth time Lukashenko has done so, and with the 2025 elections looming, he could be trying to appear fitting to internal and external actors. Still, previous measures to curb any outspoken sentiments, coupled with the number of political prisoners, diminish such efforts. 

Syria: Russia's Strategic Influence in the Balance, Türkiye Poised to Benefit

In neighboring Russia, a Syrian diplomat stationed in Moscow slammed Bashar al-Assad for fleeing his nation while rebels pushed deeper into government-controlled territory.

Assad and his family have received asylum in Russia. 

The Syrian ambassador to Moscow, Bashar Jafari, called the move "shameful and humiliating," evidencing the unpopularity of the "corrupt system. 

Other reports revealed that Russian authorities pushed Assad to make a run for it, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara urged Russia and Iran not to intervene militarily to support him.

If Assad had received support, the opposition could have achieved victory with their determination, but it would have taken a long time and could have been bloody, he said.

Fidan essentially confirmed Turkish involvement in planning both before and after Assad's fall, suggesting a smoother transition than initially thought. 

Nonetheless, whether Türkiye can see eye-to-eye with the US-backed SDF is up in the air. 

Fidan has outlined conditions to stop the conflict with SDF, including its elimination as a strategic goal.

At the same time, Secretary Blinken’s visit to Ankara points to the US being ready to play ball. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), outlawed in Türkiye.

A ceasefire, however, was ended with the SDF and the Turkish-backed SNA. Significant military buildups on the Turkish border have been observed east and west of Kobani, a Kurdish city in Syria.

The outcome on the ground is also hinged on other more relevant matters, such as the new government's policies concerning human rights, specifically freedom of expression and religion. Early signs point to Syria's new leadership moving in the right direction, yet analysts remain cautious.

Against this backdrop, Russia seems to be drawing down its forces in Syria despite an alleged deal to maintain military bases in the nation. Sources later told Reuters that Russia is withdrawing troops and equipment but will keep the bases. There have also been alleged talks between Moscow and the new Syrian leadership.

Whatever results emerge, Moscow will have to make significant overtures to the new Syrian government, especially considering its housing of Assad and its past involvement in the nation's civil war.

However, Western reservations, particularly the US delaying the removal of sanctions on Syria, might ultimately play in Moscow's favor if the Syrian leadership chooses to overlook said involvement.

Moscow can take action with less debate.

Indeed, Russia's State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading that looks to be aimed at fostering further cooperation with the Taliban. The bill allows for collaboration with organizations that have ceased "activities" aimed at promoting, justifying, and supporting terrorism or committing the said crimes.

Oddly enough, Russian lawmakers also passed another law that expands the grounds for inclusion in the Rosfinmonitoring register of “terrorists and extremists.” Experts note that this allows for its application in any case. It provides law enforcement with a powerful tool for extrajudicial prosecution since an aggravating circumstance is now recognized as committing a crime motivated by "hatred and enmity."

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: Domestic Issues and Energy Influence

In parallel, Uzbekistan has seen a law perceived as attempted censorship shot down.

The Uzbek Center for Spirituality previously announced the “spiritual examination” of media products.

However, The Ministry of Justice later stated that the bill failed to pass state registration and had no legal force, resulting in revocation. 

Earlier in the week, Uzbekistan's energy Minister, Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, openly admitted the nation had become a net gas importer, necessitating its prioritization of atomic energy amid the notable Russian presence in its energy sector.

Russia also pushed on in its efforts to become a partner in constructing Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant.

But other news seemed to be more of an eyebrow-raiser in Kazakhstan. 

Reports surfaced that information concerning its first President's health would become a state secret.  Nazarbayev also subsequently met with Putin. The visit has been perceived as a political signal to Kazakhstan's current leadership.

Majilis deputy Yemurat Bapi's previous claims about campaigns to destabilize Kazakhstan and "return to the old order," along with recent bot activity, are noteworthy in such a context.

News Concerning Ukraine and The Caucasus

In other news, the White House may be trying to undermine Russia's presence in global energy markets.

The Biden administration has been considering pushing for stricter sanctions on Russia's revenue streams before Trump's inauguration. No concrete decision has been made, however.

Meanwhile, the US House excluded the Ukraine lend-lease extension from the 2025 military budget. 

Trump also seemingly admitted that Ukraine should prepare for less aid but confusingly said that abandoning Kyiv would not be an option. His envoy pick claimed the war would be "resolved in the coming months."

At the same time, the Presidents of France and Poland would discuss a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine after the war ends. Warsaw has demonstrated reluctance, though.

Speaking of Presidents, election officials brought in a new one in Georgia, though the opposition refuses to recognize the decision. While the most popular Georgian channel is caught in a battle, the US slapped restrictions on 20 Georgians who have undermined democracy in the nation.

Read also:

• US State Dep Slaps Visa Restrictions on 20 Georgians
• Georgia: Mtavari TV Facing Pressure to Close

Abkhazia got news about restrictions as well: Russian tour operators will discontinue bookings.

The decision, dubbed "educational work" with Abkhazian businesses, comes after the nation's parliament voted against ratifying a controversial agreement with Russia that sparked protests last month.

Read also:

• Week in Review: Big Shifts, Elections, and More.
• Week In Review: A Whole Lot Going On...