Orda.kz talks with Expert on Recent Escalations between Moscow and Baku

On June 27, Russian law enforcement detained several dozen Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. Some were subjected to physical abuse, and two died.

Baku called their deaths murder, filed a formal diplomatic protest, and within days, Azerbaijani police began detaining Russian citizens — first journalists from Sputnik, then several others accused of cybercrime and drug smuggling.

Photos suggest the most recently arrested were also assaulted.

An Orda.kz correspondent spoke with Central Asia expert and political analyst Arkady Dubnov to unpack the situation.

O: Arkady Yuryevich, the starting point of the new conflict between Baku and Moscow was the detention of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. Was this an initiative of local security forces, or did they have an "order from above?"

From the very beginning of this conflict, I believed that this was a completely provincial stunt by local security forces. And they were not acting on orders from Moscow — be it some political center, for example, the presidential administration’s internal policy department or the central security agencies. This is a local showdown between security forces and “outsiders,” which is how Russia perceives all those who “came here in droves.” This is a tendency of a well-established trend of ridding Russia of everything that makes it “bad,” “unfavorable,” etc. — these are the definitions that propaganda channels use. 

Because the Yekaterinburg case is one of the attempts to restore order in the environment of a more or less developed business. And it must be said, there is a serious criminalized business among national communities in Russia. 

This is in the order of things. But it is being done in the Russian way: crudely, with impunity.

And besides, it is more than likely due to some settling of scores. Someone owes money to the security forces from those they "protect." It is quite possible to allow this. Because it is impossible to seriously talk about the fact that this is a development of the investigation case initiated 25 years ago.

As it turned out, the Azerbaijani structures did not even receive any notifications or requests for cooperation regarding their compatriots. The security forces in Yekaterinburg were simply unlucky - it ended in death and flared up with incredible force. Otherwise it would have gone unnoticed.  

The very grandiose level of the current scandal is determined by the confusion experienced in Moscow after Azerbaijan's accusations that the Russian Federation is protecting the security forces that are killing their compatriots.

At least in the same way as the statement was made after the crash of the Azerbaijani plane in December 2024.

The Russian President spoke then, although he did not tell even half the truth. And now in Baku, they are deliberately pushing Moscow, showing: now look at what the pictures of the humiliation of compatriots look like, using the example of what we do with the so-called journalists, bloggers, and IT specialists. 

They are forcing Putin to respond, give an assessment. But in Russia they are already late, as with an advanced disease. 

O: The incident in Yekaterinburg was one of a chain of anti-migrant operations by Russian security forces. There was a story about the detention of Kyrgyz citizens in a bathhouse, and citizens of Tajikistan are regularly detained en masse. But there have been no mass detentions of Russians in these countries. Why did Azerbaijan react so harshly? Was it only about two deaths? Or, as is already being said online, were the Azerbaijani authorities waiting for a pretext? 

In the other cases you mentioned, there were no deaths. Another thing is that the “Crocus complex” can be seen over all this brutal persecution of labor migrants. Security forces all over Russia are on the edge from the possible responsibilityfor overlooking the a terrorist attack preparation. And they are trying to preempt it by conducting such showdowns as in Yekaterinburg. Although there were definitely no preparations there. 

They are largely dependent on the Russian Federation because millions of labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan work there, and this is a very important factor that keeps their economy afloat.

And in general, just a few years ago, these two countries were called failed states. 

Now I would not use such a definition, but in any case, the dependence of Bishkek and Dushanbe on Moscow is significantly higher than the dependence of Baku on Moscow. 

Azerbaijan is a serious regional power in the current situation. And the further, the more its influence is strengthening in the entire Eurasian space. Like protuberances around the sun, this influence became visible after the war between Israel and Iran. As it turned out, Azerbaijan is related to many situations in this large region.  

In Baku, they seem to be saying: “We are not Tajiks. Get it through your skull, we will not allow ourselves to be humiliated like that. You depend on us, perhaps, to a greater extent than we depend on you.” 

That is, they have learned to maintain their dignity. Perhaps, not in a very standard manner. I do not think that the response was as civilized as the level that the Azerbaijani authorities would have liked it to appear. 

O: Do you think that after the death of two Azerbaijanis, the pressure on labor migrants in Russia will ease on the principle of "they've already gone too far?" Or will the security forces see this as just one of the cases, and the pressure will continue? 

Unfortunately, I have to let you down. 'Beat the strangers so that your own will be afraid' — this is what they used to say about the Jewish people, now they say this about labor migrants. This mentality, which is to a certain extent also cultivated from above by the ideologists of the “Russian world”, is not going anywhere. It can only be muted, dampened. For this, the ideological invectives of both the authorities themselves and the propaganda elite that serves them must change. And it is dispicable in its expressions. Dispicable! It cultivates persecution of “those different,” which penetrates all of Russian society. 

Original Author: Igor Ulitin