Kazakhstan Prepares for Lower Oil Prices Amid OPEC Concerns

Kazakhstan does not expect serious shocks from changes in the global oil market or a possible weakening of OPEC’s role, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said, Orda.kz reports.

According to Zhumangarin, he studied an interview with UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, who explained why the country withdrew from OPEC restrictions. The UAE’s current production ceiling is about 3.5–3.6 million barrels per day, although the country can increase output to five million barrels per day.

This is their duty to the countries that invested in production in the Arab Emirates and now expect a return. Some say this is the end of the OPEC era, but so far, international experts’ assessments and forecasts remain very cautious. The United States is now producing much more oil. Venezuela is also opening up. There are alternative sources on the market,Zhumangarin said.

He added that Kazakhstan traditionally prepares several economic development scenarios — baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic. This year, the pessimistic scenario was calculated based on an oil price of $50 per barrel.

So, in principle, there is no need to worry. We do not think Kazakhstan will face major shocks in the near future,he said.

The government has already begun preparing its budget forecast for 2027–2029, alongside macroeconomic and credit forecasts.

Original author: Ilya Astakhov

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