Explainer: What Toqayev’s Reshuffle Means for Nurtleu and Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy

Last week, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev carried out surprise personnel changes immediately after his trip to New York.

 Murat Nurtleu lost his positions as Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister but returned to Aqorda as Assistant to the President for Investment and Trade.

Yermek Kosherbayev was appointed to head the Foreign Ministry, while Yerzhan Kazykhan was reassigned to Geneva.

The reshuffle has sparked debate: is this an honorary exile for Nurtleu, or the opening of new horizons?

Murat Nurtleu’s Career Path

Born in 1976 in Almaty, Nurtleu graduated from KazNU with a degree in international relations and went on to serve in the diplomatic corps. His career included posts at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kazakhstan’s embassy in Malaysia, and work in Geneva. He also led diplomatic missions in Finland and Estonia.

Since 2019, Nurtleu has been a close ally of Toqayev: first as presidential aide, then as head of the Presidential Administration, and later as Foreign Minister. After the January 2022 events, he was appointed first deputy head of the National Security Committee (KNB), before returning to the Presidential Administration to oversee personnel and domestic policy.

In 2023, Nurtleu took charge of foreign policy as head of the MFA and regularly accompanied Toqayev during negotiations.

His rapid ascent was often described as a hallmark of Kazakhstan’s “insider system.”

Though never implicated in corruption scandals, he drew criticism for wielding influence through informal networks. Some experts even considered him a possible successor to Toqayev. His transfer to the Foreign Ministry had been seen as grooming for higher office — now his reassignment to Aqorda raises new questions.

New Horizons?

Political scientist Gaziz Abishev was among the first to weigh in on the reshuffle. He noted that Yerzhan Kazykhan is moving to Geneva to represent Kazakhstan at the UN and other international organizations:

Yerzhan Kazykhan is heading to Geneva to represent Kazakhstan at the UN office and other international organizations. Yermek Kosherbayev, who served as Deputy Prime Minister for Social Affairs, has been appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. He now heads the Ministry of Foreign Affairs without the deputy prime minister's post. One possibility is that the additional responsibilities for working with the investment sector, which Nurtleu held as Deputy Prime Minister, will be transferred along with him to the Presidential Administration.

Andrei Chebotarev called Nurtleu’s appointment the most notable change. He linked it to the turbulent political situation earlier in the month (“ORDAgate”), saying unanswered questions remain despite Nurtleu’s own statements.

On the one hand, this appears to be a consequence of the unprecedented political situation in the country in the first half of the month ('ORDAgate'). Despite Nurtleu's own comments to journalists, many questions remain, said Chebotarev.

ORDAgate is a reference to Orda.kz's high-profile investigations about Murat Nurtleu and his network.

Chebotarev also tied Yerzhan Ashikbayev’s removal as U.S. ambassador to the need to reset relations with Washington after Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Yerbol Yedilov emphasized the seriousness of Nurtleu’s removal from government leadership:

On the other hand, his appointment as presidential aide was interpreted by some as a sign that Toqayev would protect his staff. The accusations leveled at Murat Abugalievich were, of course, unproven and lacked even circumstantial evidence, but, as they say, they left a bad taste.

He also criticized the composition of Kazakhstan’s New York delegation, which lacked business representatives.

In contrast, Uzbekistan secured a major deal with the U.S. and a personal meeting between President Mirziyoyev and Trump, while Toqayev held only a phone call. Yedilov suggested this may have triggered the reshuffle and warned of further changes to come.

Blogger Galym Baytuk was harsher, describing Nurtleu’s new post as a demotion:

Yesterday he was deputy prime minister and foreign minister, speaking on behalf of the country to presidents and secretaries of state. Today, his role is closer to ‘calling an investor and helping with paperwork.’ It’s like moving the captain of a liner to a motorboat and telling him, ‘Your mission is still very important.’ Technically, both are transport — but the difference is obvious.

Baytuk argued that since Nurtleu had already overseen the investment bloc, claims of “new horizons” ring hollow.

He suggested the real reasons for the reshuffle lie in high-profile investigations, questionable business ties, and diplomatic missteps. To him, the appointment is an honorary exile: the title carries prestige but little power, serving as a warning that Toqayev is willing to move even his closest allies “from the liner to the boat.”

Who Is Yermek Kosherbayev?

Kosherbayev, born in 1965 in Almaty, is a historian by training and a graduate of both Kirov Kazakh State University and the Diplomatic Academy of the USSR MFA. He speaks Kazakh, Russian, English, and Korean, is married, and has two children.

His career began in the late 1980s at the MFA of the Kazakh SSR, where he held posts in press, consular affairs, protocol, and Asian departments. In the mid-1990s, he worked in the Presidential Administration and at Kazakhstan’s embassy in Switzerland.

He later became aide to the Prime Minister, served in senior roles at KazTransOil and KazMunayGas, led Rauan Media Group, and held key positions in the Otan party and Atameken business association.

In 2009, he shifted to regional administration, becoming deputy, then first deputy akim of East Kazakhstan Region, and later taking leadership positions at the Ministry of Agriculture.

By 2018, he returned to diplomacy as Executive Secretary of the MFA, later serving as Deputy Minister and then Ambassador to Russia (2020–2023). Most recently, he governed the East Kazakhstan Region until his latest appointment as Foreign Minister.

His tenure in East Kazakhstan drew mixed reactions. A photo of Kosherbayev presenting canned food at a public event went viral, symbolizing his sometimes awkward style of engagement.

He also floated the idea of launching a panoramic train between Oskemen and Ridder, which never materialized.

There were also darker moments: in December 2024, a gas explosion at the Ridder Thermal Power Plant injured six people under his watch.

Original Author: Artyom Volkov