Expert: No Evidence Toqayev Acted as Mediator Between U.S. and Russia

Political scientist Anuar Bakhitkhanov shared his assessment in an exclusive commentary for Orda.kz.

According to the expert, despite widespread speculation, there is little basis for the idea that Qasym-Jomart Toqayev acted as an intermediary between the U.S. and Russian presidents.

Bakhitkhanov notes that the timing of Toqayev’s visit to Moscow immediately after the C5+1 summit has fueled rumors, but the available facts do not support such interpretations.

If we look at it soberly and without unnecessary speculation, the episode with Toqayev's visit to Putin immediately after the C5+1 summit doesn't qualify as a full-fledged mediation between the US and Russia. Yes, the timing is noteworthy, but so far there's no indication that Toqayev conveyed messages from the American side or played a liaison role. Kazakhstan is indeed balancing its relations with all major players, but this is more a manifestation of its traditional multi-vector approach than acting as a negotiating channel.

The same logic applies to the European direction. The visits of the Finnish and Estonian leaders to Astana occurred almost simultaneously with Toqayev's trip to Moscow, but it's too early to connect these events. Kazakhstan is actively working with both the West and Russia, strengthening contacts, offering platforms for dialogue, but this doesn't make it a political mediator.

As for the closed three-hour meeting between Toqayev and Putin, on the contrary, everything seems quite understandable. There were several serious topics on the agenda: energy, new sanctions against Russian companies, transit routes, regional security, and Kazakhstan's role in redistributing logistics and raw material flows. Such conversations are rarely short, especially when they involve two countries linked by history and economics."

The level of reception in Moscow deserves special attention. It was truly one of Toqayev's most ceremonial visits in recent memory. And here, of course, diplomatic protocol is only part of the picture. Russia is under significant external pressure, and Kazakhstan is currently one of its key partners in the region. Therefore, the demonstratively warm reception appears to be an attempt to emphasize the importance of the relationship and show special attention to Astana. For Kazakhstan, this is an additional source of influence and confirmation that its position in the region is becoming increasingly significant.

Toqayev’s visit to Moscow took place on  November 11–12.

He held a closed, informal meeting with Vladimir Putin, and the following day, both sides signed several agreements primarily related to transportation and logistics.

Original Author: Igor Ulitin