Zhumangarin Presents 2026–2035 Development Scenarios

Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin has presented a long-term development forecast for 2026–2035, Orda.kz reports.

The forecast outlines three scenarios for development: basic, moderate, and alternative.

Over 10 years, the average economic growth in the alternative scenario is projected at 5.1%, in the moderate scenario — 4.3%. In the base scenario, the average annual GDP growth over 10 years will be 4.5%. Nominal GDP will increase to 473.2 trillion tenge in 2035. State budget revenues in 2035 will increase to 66.8 trillion tenge,he said at a government meeting.

From 2029, the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is expected to be reduced to two trillion tenge. The budget deficit is set to gradually decline to 0.4% of GDP by 2029, with a balanced budget targeted from 2030.

According to the projections, total funding for state programs from republican and local budgets will amount to 37.4 trillion tenge in 2026, 39.6 trillion in 2027, and 41.6 trillion in 2028.

Earlier, analysts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised their forecasts for Brent oil prices and GDP growth. Economists now expect the average Brent price in 2025 to be $69.50 per barrel and have increased their estimate of Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2026 from 4.6% to 4.7%.

Original Author: Zhadra Zhulmukhametova