Will Kazakhstan Export Oil Through Ukraine?

A new bill banning the transit and import of oil and gas from Russia and Belarus has been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

The proposal, drafted by Sergei Nagornyak, suggests sourcing energy supplies from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and other countries, Orda.kz reports.

The bill, registered on January 7, 2025 (No. 12380), prohibits the transportation of Russian and Belarusian energy resources across Ukraine’s borders via pipelines during martial law. 

However, unlike previous proposals, it aligns with Ukraine's international commitments by allowing transit if the oil's origin is properly verified.

The explanatory note states that the initiative's primary goal is to reduce Russia’s revenue from energy exports, strengthen sanctions against Moscow, and enhance Ukraine's energy security.

Lawmakers argue that Russian oil and gas exports are not just economic tools but also instruments of political influence.

Such bans have been controversial in global trade. In 2016, a trade dispute between Russia and Ukraine was brought before the WTO.

The International Arbitration Court later ruled that restrictions on energy trade could be justified for national security reasons (Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT). The current bill relies on this precedent, explicitly stating that it aims to protect Ukraine’s essential security interests during wartime.

Unlike previous drafts, the new document bans Russian supplies and establishes a precise mechanism for monitoring oil and gas transit from third countries, such as Kazakhstan. If proper documentation confirms its origin, oil from friendly nations can pass through Ukraine.

To prevent loopholes, the bill expands the restrictions beyond just transit and imports, covering all customs regimes under Ukrainian law. Any energy imports from Russia and Belarus will be strictly banned.

The explanatory note emphasizes that the bill will not require financial costs from the Ukrainian budget. Its adoption is expected to increase economic pressure on Russia and reduce its influence on the Ukrainian energy market.

If the bill becomes law, Kazakhstan can transport oil through Ukraine and open new export routes.

One key option is the Druzhba oil pipeline, the world’s most extensive trunk pipeline system, built in the 1960s. It begins in Almetyevsk, passes through Bryansk and Mozyr, and then splits into two branches:

• Northern branch – through Belarus, Poland, Germany, Latvia, and Lithuania
• Southern branch – through Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary

This legislation could allow Kazakhstan to use Ukraine’s section of Druzhba to supply oil to European markets.

Kazakhstan has actively sought alternatives to diversify its routes via Russian-controlled export routes, particularly the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). 

Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev stated that the government was exploring various logistical options to diversify oil exports.

Original Author: Artem Volkov