Why the Oil Price Spike Did Not Help Kazakhstan’s Budget Much, the Ministry Explained

The sharp rise in oil prices caused by hostilities in the Middle East did bring Kazakhstan some additional revenue, but the effect on the state budget was limited by lower oil production and the exchange rate, Orda.kz reports.

First Deputy Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin said there are several factors at work. Higher oil prices do generate additional revenue, but falling production due to attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium has reduced the overall effect. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar cuts budget revenue in tenge terms.

There are two components. First, the increase in oil prices brings certain revenues. But there is also the decline of the dollar. The budget is affected not only by the oil price, but also by production volumes and the tenge exchange rate. The economic growth we have now is happening without oil. Oil production is down compared with last year. At the same time, the price increase offsets the decline in production and the fall in the exchange rate. It is too early to draw conclusions — we will see the full picture over the course of the year. Amrin said at a government briefing. 

He also noted that the main tax revenues from oil companies go to the National Fund rather than directly to the state budget, which is why the budget itself does not receive a major boost. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue flowing into the National Fund reached 784 billion tenge, compared with 622 billion tenge a year earlier. Oil-related budget revenue came mainly through export customs duties, which increased by 40.5 billion tenge due to higher oil prices.

Original author: Ilya Astakhov

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