Trump’s Tariff: Experts Weigh In on Kazakhstan’s Possible Response

U.S. President Donald Trump has officially notified President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev of his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Kazakh goods starting August 1, 2025, Orda.kz reports. 

In 2024, Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. totaled $2.3 billion, while imports from the U.S. stood at $1.1 billion.

However, economist Olzhas Khudaibergenov pointed out that most of Kazakhstan’s exports — such as oil, uranium, silver, and ferroalloys — are not subject to duties. Excluding these, the value of goods exported drops to just over $100 million.

Economist Yeldar Shamsutdinov noted that similar tariff notifications were sent to several other countries —Vietnam (40%), Laos (40%), Myanmar (40%), Malaysia (25%), and South Africa (30%). He emphasized that these relate to delays in previously announced tariff changes rather than entirely new restrictions.

Analyst Andrey Chebotarev shared a similar view:

In fact, nothing has changed regarding the announcement in the fall. At that time, the talk was about 27% duties for Kazakhstan, but the bulk of Kazakhstan's exports to the US are crude oil, uranium, silver, ferroalloys and other minerals. These categories, which account for more than 95% of supplies, are included in the list of exceptions. A significant portion of Kazakhstan's exports to the US are not subject to additional tariffs, as they are included in the list of exceptions provided for by the US Administration's regulations,
 he wrote on Telegram.

Political analyst Gaziz Abishev added context, recalling the previously proposed 27% rate, now adjusted to 25%.

The increase in US tariffs in itself is unlikely to affect the investment attractiveness of Kazakhstan. The government of Kazakhstan will most likely take a wait-and-see attitude and will not take retaliatory measures. It remains to be seen how the introduction of new tariffs will affect the domestic economy of the United States and its relations with other countries,
 Abishev said on Telegram.

The additional duties are expected to impact only about 4.8% of Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S., or roughly $95 million.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade is reportedly preparing an official statement in response.

Original Author: Artyom Volkov