National Bank Shares Its Outlook on the Tenge Exchange Rate in 2025

The National Bank reported on the state of the foreign exchange market, Orda.kz reports.

By the end of December, the tenge had weakened by 2.5%, reaching 525.10 tenge per dollar. The average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange decreased from 262 million to 254 million dollars, with the total monthly trading volume amounting to 5.3 billion dollars.

In the short term, the dynamics of the tenge will depend on market participants' expectations, quarterly tax payments, global market trends, and changes in the geopolitical situation. The National Bank will stick to its flexible exchange rate policy, which prevents the accumulation of imbalances and ensures the safety of gold and foreign exchange reserves,
the National Bank noted.

At the end of 2024, the share of foreign exchange assets in the ENPF (Unified Accumulation Pension Fund—Ed.) was slightly above 40%.

In December, the National Bank did not purchase dollars for the pension asset investment portfolio, and there are no plans to buy currency for the ENPF in January 2025.

In the domestic currency market, there was increased demand for foreign currency from economic agents, coupled with a limited supply. To prevent destabilizing fluctuations, reduce excessive volatility in the tenge exchange rate, and ensure the availability of foreign currency during certain periods in December, the National Bank conducted currency interventions. The total volume of currency sales at the end of the month reached 307.6 million dollars,
the National Bank added.

In 2024, the national currency weakened by 15% against the dollar. 

Experts note that on the second-to-last day of trading on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, the rate hit 523.57 tenge per dollar (the average weighted rate on KASE was 525.10 tenge per dollar on December 31).

The recent weakening of the Russian ruble may have impacted the tenge's performance, driving increased demand for foreign currency on the local market.

Original Author: Zhadra Zhulmukhametova