Kazakhstan’s National Bank Keeps Base Rate at 16.5%

At its meeting on August 29, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to leave the base rate unchanged at 16.5%, Orda.kz reports.

The regulator explained the move by pointing to persistent annual inflation at 11.8%. Price growth continued in food and non-food sectors, though slowed slightly in services. Monthly inflation eased to 0.7%, still above the historical average. Inflationary pressure remains due to tariff reforms, fiscal stimulus, and strong consumer demand, supported by high household lending.

External factors include rising global food prices and high inflation in Russia, while oil prices remain stable.

The National Bank revised its inflation forecast to 11–12.5% for 2025, 9.5–11.5% for 2026, and 5.5–7.5% for 2027, citing food price spikes and stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure.

Economic growth is projected at 5.5–6.5% in 2025 and 4–5% in 2026.

Officials indicated the base rate is unlikely to be lowered this year, but an increase remains possible:

The absence of a significant slowdown in inflation in the coming months will be grounds for tightening monetary conditions, supporting a return of inflation to a sustainable downward path toward the 5% medium-term target, the Bank stated.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny