Kazakhstan’s Current Account Deficit Widens in Second Quarter — Expert

Kazakhstan’s current account deficit nearly doubled in the second quarter of 2025, largely due to a drop in energy exports, according to a report by Halyk Finance, Orda.kz writes.

The deficit reached $2.8 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in the same period last year. The country’s trade surplus also declined sharply, falling from $5.2 billion in Q2 2024 to $2.8 billion this year.

Halyk Finance analysts note that exports totaled $22.3 billion (down 6.7% year-on-year), while imports rose 4.3% to $19.5 billion, driven by high domestic demand and infrastructure projects.

The decline in exports was mainly linked to reduced oil shipments.

Fuel and energy products account for more than half of exports. Lower physical volumes of oil exports led to weaker trade performance. Imports grew on the back of strong demand, with chemicals and mineral products making a noticeable contribution, said Sanzhar Kaldarov, macroeconomic analyst at Halyk Finance.

Unfavorable external factors also played a role: oil prices were lower than a year earlier, and the tenge weakened, limiting export earnings. Analysts expect conditions to improve in the second half of 2025 as oil production from Tengiz increases, though the current account is still likely to remain negative.

Kaldarov forecasts that the deficit could reach 3.8% of GDP by year-end, though this may be revised downward depending on oil prices and trade volumes.

Kazakhstan also recorded a capital outflow of $1.7 billion in Q2, mainly from the completion of major oil and gas projects. Direct investment outflows totaled $1.1 billion, partially offset by small inflows into the banking sector and public administration.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny