Kazakhstan: National Bank Keeps Rate at 15.25%

The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep the base rate at 15.25% per annum, with a range of +/—1 percentage point.

The following announcement regarding interest rates is set for March 7, 2025, Orda.kz reports.

In December 2024, inflation in Kazakhstan reached 8.6%, remaining within the projected range of 8-9%. The regulator pointed to several factors driving this price growth, including the "Tariff in Exchange for Investments" program, which has led to increased housing and utility services costs, a weaker tenge, and fiscal measures supporting domestic demand. Additionally, the population's outlook on inflation has also risen.

Production growth is observed in all major industries,  the National Bank stated.

There’s still a strong demand coupled with a weakening tenge and rising inflation expectations, which raises the risk of further price increases. Kazakhstan also faces external pressures from inflation in Russia, while domestic factors like the reform of regulated prices are quite significant. 

The Monetary Policy Committee is considering tightening its policy at the upcoming meeting if needed to hit the medium-term inflation target of 5%.

Halyk Finance analysts previously predicted that the National Bank is unlikely to lower the base rate.

They believe that keeping the rate steady makes sense, especially given the ongoing stimulating fiscal policies, a declining exchange rate, and higher regulated tariffs.

Original Author: Ruslan Loginov