Kazakhstan Financial Experts Lower Forecasts for 2025 Economic Outlook

The analytical center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) surveyed professional market participants, asking them to predict the economic situation in 2025. Experts have downgraded their assessments for most indicators, Orda.kz reports.

According to AFK, financiers were asked to forecast Brent crude oil prices, the tenge exchange rate, inflation, GDP growth, and the National Bank’s base rate. Experts hold pessimistic expectations for nearly all of these indicators.

According to experts, the average dollar exchange rate in May is expected to be 519.6 tenge. The national currency could weaken even further. However, analysts believe the exchange rate in May will be supported by the National Bank’s currency sales (about $1.2 billion) and tight monetary policy.

Looking ahead, market participants expect that within a year, the dollar will reach 543.9 tenge, driven by a global decline in oil prices.

Regarding oil prices, experts predict Brent will average $64.9 per barrel for the year. Previously, analysts had estimated Kazakhstan’s main export product would fetch $68.7.

The inflation forecast was revised from 11.2% to 11.8%, factoring in its acceleration.

Low prices for raw materials, long-term tough financial conditions and a high probability of stagnation in key trading partners may put pressure on exports and investment activity in Kazakhstan. Under these conditions, GDP growth in a year is projected at 3.9% (4.1% previously), the AFK reported.

Most of the experts also believe that at the next National Bank meeting on the base rate, it will be maintained at 16.5%.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny