How Long Will Kazakhstan’s Uranium Reserves Last?

Kazakhstan is home to some of the world’s richest uranium reserves — but experts warn that rising global demand for nuclear fuel could accelerate the depletion of its proven deposits. Orda.kz examined the latest data to find out how long the country’s uranium will last.

On April 8, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) released a new edition of the Red Book, an annual 600-page report that provides a comprehensive overview of global uranium reserves, production, and demand. Kazakhstan features prominently in this latest edition.

How Much Uranium Does Kazakhstan Have?

According to the Red Book, Kazakhstan has around 60 identified uranium deposits, many of which were discovered during the Soviet era and are only now being actively developed. The country is ranked among the top three nations in terms of uranium reserves, following Australia (which holds 28% of global deposits, largely in the Olympic Dam site) and ahead of Canada.

What makes Kazakhstan stand out even more is that it leads the world in low-cost uranium reserves — those that can be extracted at a cost of $40/kgU or less, the most competitive price category out of four.

Kazakhstan is currently the world’s largest uranium producer, accounting for 43% of global output. It outpaces all other producers, including Canada, Namibia, Australia, and Uzbekistan combined. Other major producers include Russia, Niger, China, and India.

Together, these top nine countries supply 99% of the world’s uranium.

The IAEA and NEA predict that Kazakhstan will continue to dominate uranium production for the foreseeable future.

Kazakhstan also ranks among the global leaders in geological exploration of uranium deposits. However, spending in this area has been steadily declining, even though maintaining long-term reserves is crucial, especially given the country’s high production volumes.

In Kazakhstan, exploration and development expenditures continued the downward trend of recent years, declining to USD 13.4 million in 2020, USD 9.8 million in 2021, and USD 9.5 million in 2022, with no estimate provided for 2023. These expenditures are the lowest since Kazakhstan started ramping up its exploration and development activities in 2007 and 2008.the report notes. 

Experts point out that over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has significantly ramped up its uranium production, overtaking Canada, which had long held the top spot in the industry. And Kazakhstan’s uranium isn’t just abundant — it’s also inexpensive to produce.

The country primarily uses in-situ leaching with sulfuric acid, a method considered both highly cost-effective and relatively environmentally safe when properly regulated. This technique is particularly suited to sandstone-type uranium deposits, which make up the majority of Kazakhstan’s reserves. According to IAEA and NEA estimates, these deposits hold approximately 1.5 million tons of uranium ore.

In short, Kazakhstan is currently in a strong position. The question now is: how long can the country maintain its global lead?

Why Is Uranium in Such High Demand?

Global demand for uranium is on the rise. Countries like China are rapidly expanding their nuclear energy programs, while several European nations have reversed earlier decisions to phase out nuclear power. In the coming years, several countries are expected to launch their first nuclear power plants — not just Kazakhstan but also Saudi Arabia, Poland, Uzbekistan, Kenya, Ghana, and Uganda.

Currently, Kazakhstan is the world’s top supplier of uranium for nuclear power plants, providing about 26% of global demand. Niger follows closely behind at 25%.

One of Kazakhstan’s biggest uranium customers is the United States, which recently imposed 27% trade tariffs on Kazakhstan's goods.

However, uranium was spared from the new duties. The U.S. imports about 25% of its uranium from Kazakhstan, second only to Canada, which supplies 27%.

The equation could change once Kazakhstan builds its first nuclear power plant (NPP). The country may begin using more of its uranium to meet domestic fuel needs, potentially reducing exports. And it may not stop at just one plant — plans are already being discussed for three NPPs in the future.

Still, according to IAEA experts, Kazakhstan is unlikely to begin consuming uranium domestically within the next 10 years. For now, all production is exported.

What uranium will power Kazakhstan’s first NPP if proven reserves are only expected to last until around 2040?

Will Kazakhstan Have Enough Uranium?

As of 2022, global uranium production met about 85% of the demand from operating nuclear power plants. The remaining 15% was covered by secondary sources, such as enriched stockpiles and reprocessed spent fuel.

But demand for uranium is steadily rising — and to keep pace, the world needs to continue discovering and developing new deposits.

Without that, the supply gap will only grow.

According to 2024 data, only four uranium-producing countries — including Australia and Canada — reported proven reserves expected to last beyond 2050. Kazakhstan, however, offers a more conservative estimate, projecting that its current proven reserves will last until around 2040, not accounting for yet-to-be-explored deposits.

Russia has a similar timeline.

Overall, global uranium reserves are expected to last at least until 2050.

Supply could later start falling short of growing demand. To avoid disruptions, production will need to increase significantly in the coming decades.

Experts see two likely demand trajectories for nuclear fuel:

High-demand scenario – If nuclear energy adoption accelerates, demand could more than double. In this case, uranium reserves in the highest price category could be entirely depleted by the 2080s.

Moderate-demand scenario – If growth is slower (around 45% increase), current reserves would last until approximately the 2110s.

Kazakhstan is not at immediate risk of running out of uranium.

While the country’s proven recoverable reserves dropped slightly — by 1,300 tons — this was offset by new discoveries, including major finds at the Budenovskoye and Inkah deposits. From 2019 to 2022, Kazakhstan added 102,200 tons of uranium to its known reserves.

Today, nearly all of Kazakhstan’s uranium reserves have already been contracted for extraction. The oldest deposits have been in operation since the 1970s, while the most recent began development in 2007.

As of 2022, about 20,500 people were employed in uranium mining across the country.

In Kazakhstan, 95% of all identified uranium resources in the cost category of <USD 40/kgU, 93% of resources in category <USD 80/kgU, and 83% of resources of <USD 130/kgU, have been contracted by mining companies,the Red Book notes. 

Kazakhstan will continue earning significant revenue from uranium exports in the near future.

To maintain its global leadership and meet domestic nuclear energy needs in the future, the country must ramp up geological exploration and invest in the discovery and development of new deposits.

The responsibility — and opportunity — largely falls on Kazatomprom, the national atomic company. In the coming years, it could become one of Kazakhstan’s key exporters and a central player in global energy markets.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny