Fitch Confirms Kazakhstan’s BBB Credit Rating with Stable Outlook

International ratings agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at BBB with a stable outlook, Orda.kz reports.

Financial analysts noted that the country faces a low risk of secondary sanctions.

In its explanation, Fitch cited Kazakhstan’s relatively low government debt and solid foreign currency reserves, particularly in the National Fund. The agency also said that lower global oil prices — which could threaten economic stability—are being offset by increased production at the Tengiz oil field.

Experts expect Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 5.6% in 2025, but slow to around 4% by 2027.

Oil remains the central pillar of Kazakhstan’s economy, while non-resource-based revenue remains modest.

The fiscal deficit has widened, and inflation continues to rise. Among the factors preventing a rating upgrade, Fitch analysts pointed to the country’s high reliance on hydrocarbon exports and relatively weak fiscal and macroeconomic policy.

Hydrocarbons account for over 50% of exports, and are mostly shipped via Russia through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The CPC has faced disruptions related to security and regulatory issues, but we see low risk of major interruptions to oil exports via CPC, given Kazakhstan’s adept balancing of relationships with both Russia and the West. We assess the risk of full-scale secondary sanctions from the West as low,
 Fitch Ratings noted.

Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of steep tariffs on Russia’s trade partners.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny