Economist Comments on CPC Suspension, Energy Ministry Says Kazakhstan's Oil Shipments Proceeding Unrestricted

As Orda.kz previously reported, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles the export of Kazakhstan's oil, has suspended the operation of two units following an unscheduled inspection. Economist Ruslan Sultanov commented on the risks this poses for Kazakhstan via his Telegram channel.

The expert notes that since March 31, the CPC has temporarily halted the use of two single-point mooring (SPM) systems — VPU-1 and VPU-2 — at its terminal near Novorossiysk. These units load oil onto tankers. The suspension followed an inspection triggered by a fuel oil spill in the Kerch Strait, which revealed violations in their operation.

Ruslan Sultanov points out that this isn’t the first time the CPC has faced such issues in recent years.

Everything is running on the good old VPU-3, which has been working non-stop since 2014. We've seen this before: in 2022, a court case in Novorossiysk, environmental concerns, a month-long pause. Then there were cracks — VPU-1 and VPU-2 went offline again. Those short-term suspensions didn’t significantly affect production, and that’s likely the case now, the economist notes.

However, the current CPC shutdown comes under different circumstances. Since April, the OPEC+ alliance has allowed oil production to increase gradually. 

In addition, output at Tengiz has surged following the test launch of the Future Growth Project (FGP). As a result, Kazakhstan now has the capacity to produce more oil, but there’s a bottleneck since CPC facilities aren't fully operational.

Ruslan Sultanov emphasizes that the CPC pipeline remains Kazakhstan’s primary export route. Around 80% of the country’s oil is transported through it.

At the marine terminal in Novorossiysk — where the two SPMs are temporarily offline — oil is loaded onto tankers bound for global markets. Last year, 55 million tons of Kazakhstan's oil were exported via CPC, out of a total of 71 million tons.

This makes the CPC issue a matter of serious concern for Kazakhstan.

The situation isn’t catastrophic, but this 'temporary' stoppage highlights a systemic vulnerability. If Tengiz and Kashagan are the engine, then CPC is the gearbox. And right now, it’s jammed. Meanwhile, the engine is already roaring, warns Ruslan Sultanov.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry has assured that shipments are proceeding as usual. The entire volume of oil goes through VPU-3, the only unit currently in operation. 

Original Author: Nikita Drobny, Ruslan Loginov