Drone Lands in Kazakhstan — How Did It Get There?

On March 18, a drone was found in West Kazakhstan Region, marking the second such incident in recent weeks.

Initially described as an "unidentified UAV," but based on the visual evidence, it can be said that the object resembles a Russian Geran-type drone. 

Orda.kz examines how it may have ended up there.

Official Statement 

The West Kazakhstan Region Police Department provided the following statement regarding the object:

The West Kazakhstan Region Police Department, together with authorized services, is conducting verification activities regarding the discovery of an object that looks like an unmanned aerial vehicle in the Taskala District. The object fell in a remote area, far from populated areas, and was found intact, without visible damage. All circumstances of the incident are being established. 

Visual Evidence 

The "object" in question strongly resembles the "Geran-2", the Russian version of the Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drone. Photos and videos published by Kazinform on March 18 show what looks like the word "Geran" written in Cyrillic, along with the drone’s onboard number — 18358.

The drone’s dimensions also match the known specifications of the Geran-2. In a video from the scene, the person filming repeatedly states "three meters," corresponding to the 3x2 meter dimensions listed in a May 2024 report by the Russian news site Life.ru.

The drone's black color is another characteristic, designed for nighttime camouflage. 

The Geran-2 drones are produced in Russia’s Yelabuga special economic zone, known as "Alabuga," where hundreds of these drones have been manufactured. In March 2024, Rossiyskaya Gazeta published photos from Alabuga, showing rows of black-painted Geran-2 drones.

This facility gained controversial attention in Kazakhstan last year when advertising booklets for the Alabuga Polytechnic College were distributed to Astana schoolchildren. Among the supposed advantages of studying there, one was highlighted:

Because building attack drones that destroy the enemy is cool.

The booklet even featured an image of a modified Geran-2 drone:

Such drones are one of Russia’s primary weapons in its ongoing strikes on Ukraine.

These drones carry a 50-kilogram warhead, and their attacks have been responsible for significant destruction, including demolished sections of apartment buildings and crippling energy infrastructure.

How Did the Drone End Up in Kazakhstan?

Military expert Daulet Zhumabekov dismisses the idea that the drone was deliberately sent toward Kazakhstan:

Of course, this is an accident. None of the warring parties are planning to launch drones at Kazakhstan. There is no military sense in this.

According to Zhumabekov, the cheap navigation systems make them vulnerable to electronic warfare (EW) interference:

In Belarus, they've already lost count of how many drones have flown in. They're being directed towards Ukraine. Ukraine is disrupts their GPS signals, and they're starting to stray. They run out of fuel and they just fall. I assume that something similar happened here.

This is the second time a foreign drone has been discovered in Kazakhstan. On February 19, a drone crossed the Kazakh border, though its origins remain uncertain.

The drone visually resembled a French-made Crecerelle, used by Ukraine, but Ukrainian experts insist it was a Russian Orlan-10.

The recurring drone incidents raise questions about Kazakhstan’s air defense systems.

Zhumabekov believes that Kazakhstan does not possess the capability to disrupt military drones:

Kazakhstan hardly has its own technical capabilities to take down a military drone. So if we talk at least about the Shahed, it most likely lost its orientation under the influence of Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. And since the Geran-2 has a large flight range, estimated at about 1,000 kilometers, it could have come from almost anywhere. This one, by the way, landed not far from the border with the Saratov region of the Russian Federation.

Regarding Kazakhstan’s air defense capabilities, the expert adds:

Kazakhstan has all its air defense deployed to the south and southeast. We have a joint air defense system with Russia. Under this agreement, we cover what is in the south, and on the Russian side, Russia itself must provide us with security.

Original Author: Igor Ulitin