Analysts Warn Kazakhstan May Struggle with Further Growth of Public Debt

Kazakhstan’s public debt has reached a historic high, Orda.kz reports.

By the end of the first half of the year, the country’s external debt rose to $172.8 billion — a new record, according to the National Bank. Compared to last year, the total increased by 3.6%, while the debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 59.2%.

In their latest review, Halyk Finance analysts note that most of the growth came from the public and quasi-public sectors. Their debt increased by 8% over the year, whereas the private sector’s borrowing grew by only 2%.

Despite this, private companies still dominate the structure of the debt. They account for 71%, the report says.

A significant role is played by so-called intercompany loans — credit that foreign parent companies extend to their Kazakhstan-based subsidiaries. These loans make up 53.6% of all external debt, with nearly 80% concentrated in the oil and gas industry.

For now, Kazakhstan’s external stability is supported by its reserves. As of mid-2025, the combined assets of the National Fund and the National Bank’s international reserves reached $112 billion, or 38% of GDP — enough to cover the entire debt of the public sector.

Earlier, Finance Minister Madi Takiyev acknowledged that Kazakhstan plans to borrow another 24 trillion tenge over the next three years. In that case, by 2028, the national debt could double to 57 trillion tenge. MP Olzhas Nuraldinov added that part of the new borrowing will go toward servicing old debt, and debt-service costs may exceed spending on education, defense, and infrastructure.

In October, the government also raised an additional $1.5 billion on the external market by issuing five-year Eurobonds with a yield of 4.412% per year.

Original Author: Ruslan Loginov