A Dive Into Kazakhstan-China Trade Gap

The difference in customs statistics between Kazakhstan and China is a problem our authorities have discussed for almost 15 years. 

Orda has put together a snapshot of this issue.

2011–2012: First Explanations

In 2012, the Customs Control Committee under the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan admitted that the difference between the two countries' statistics was $4.5 billion.

The department then explained that:

• China takes into account transit goods in its exports to Kazakhstan, which are then sent on to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and other countries
• Chinese exporters inflate prices to get more subsidies and VAT refunds 
• In Kazakhstan, importers, on the contrary, understate the cost of goods to pay less taxes

No fundamental reforms in the customs system followed.

2013–2015: Gap Grows

Official statistics over the years confirm that the problem has not been resolved.

In 2013, the difference reached $6.1 billion. The main reasons were again named as transit, smuggling, and undervaluation. In 2014, the discrepancy was $7.3 billion.

The Ministry of Finance admitted that large retail chains and importers massively understate customs value.

In 2015, the difference was $8.9 billion and continued to grow. 

During these years, the authorities said introducing new digital systems and increased control "would help solve the problem." 

2018–2021: "Positive Trend"

The following years demonstrated an ongoing trend.

• 2018 — 52.5%
• 2019 — 47%
• 2020 — 45.5%
• 2021 — 40.5%

The Ministry of Finance assured that there was a downward trend. But in monetary terms, the difference remained at billions of dollars.

In 2020, the head of the State Revenue Committee, Marat Sultangaziyev, explained that 53% of the discrepancies were related to the transit of Chinese goods. Another 20% are goods that go through the Khorgos ICBC and postal items, and 27% are pure smuggling and understatement of the cost of imports.

Nursultan Nazarbayev and Dariga Nazarbayeva Chime In

In 2019, former President Nursultan Nazarbayev drew attention to the problem.

Customs administration. According to our data, there are some figures, according to the Chinese, there are others. The difference is in the billions, because no one really knows who is responsible for this. You start asking - some heads 'have their grip' on customs. Which? Name their names, hold them accountable, initiate criminal cases. We can get several billion tenge for social needs, said Nazarbayev at the 18th Congress of the Nur Otan Party in the Palace of Independence.

Dariga Nazarbayeva, a senator at the time, sent a parliamentary inquiry to the government, demanding clarification regarding numerous violations in customs administration. According to her, studies showed that customs duties were paid only on 10-45% of goods imported into Kazakhstan, which led to significant budget losses.

2022: Demands to Restore Order

Three years later, in January 2022, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev also criticized the state of customs:

The real chaos that is going on there is well known. Cars are not inspected, taxes and duties are not paid. Discrepancies in mirror statistics with the customs authorities of China reach billions of dollars. There are some authorized operators who have the status of untouchables. The country loses tens of billions of tenge in taxes. the President said.

After this statement, officials talked about reforms and strengthening oversight.

In 2022, the Ministry of Finance reported that the difference was $5.7 billion. The reasons were the same: transit goods ($2.6 billion), smuggling, and underestimation of value ($2.8 billion).

The estimated losses to the republican budget due to inaccurate declaration of goods at customs are estimated at 150 billion tenge.

2023: Continued Rise

By mid-2023, the difference between Chinese and Kazakh statistics was 32.7%. The percentage seemed to decrease, but the amount in absolute values ​​was growing.

In July 2023, the director of the State Revenue Committee's control department, Yeldos Saudabayev, said that Kazakhstan was reducing the gap in mirror statistics.

In 2017, the difference was 59.4%, and in 2023 — 32.7%. In dollar terms, the amount only increased. 

2024: No Resolution? 

In 2024, Vice Finance Minister Dauren Temirbekov stated that the discrepancy between Chinese and Kazakh data for 2023 was 32%.

Officials assert this is not an issue but merely "different calculation methodologies."

Imports are recorded in the country of origin, and exports in the country of destination. It is impossible to completely eliminate the discrepancies, Temirbekov said.

2025: $14 Billion 

In 2025, the difference in customs statistics between our country and China reached 14 billion dollars, causing one to wonder what is actually being done. 

Original Author: Olga Ibraeva