Week in Review: Russia, Central Asia, and More

Orda has put together a brief synopsis of news from the past week.

The tightening of migration laws in Russia has far from subsided. Bills have been proposed to toughen penalties for organizing illegal migration, introduce new liability for legal entities for falsifying documents, and enable the blocking of sites offering "illicit services" for migrants. One's unlawful presence in Russia could also become an aggravating circumstance when committing a crime.

Against this backdrop, a Tajik diaspora leader in Irkutsk has been detained. He is suspected of organizing illegal migration. Additionally, Russia's infamous "Illegal" operation also began. A raid uncovered over 1.5 thousand violations in St. Petersburg alone. The following weekend, Mansur Soltayev, Chechya's Ombudsman, demanded security forces look into a group he called "Rossiskaya Obshina." He claimed the group targeted North Caucasus people.

At the same time, Kyrgyz Deputy Ulan Primov met with the State Duma's Deputy Chair, Boris Chernyshov. They discussed topics concerning migrants in Russia. Primov highlighted reports that migrants' children are not enrolled in schools and nurseries in Moscow and the Moscow region. He also stressed that people seeking entrance are not allowed into the Russian Federation and face lengthy airport checks.

Being part of the EAEU, citizens of Kyrgyzstan must have a case-specific approach,Primov said. 

Official Bishkek also made its voice heard about the stricter migration regulations, emphasizing that they must adhere to the EAEU regulations stipulated in the organization's agreement. 

Non-EAEU member Tajikistan, meanwhile, noted a slowdown in cash remittances in 2024's second quarter. AsiaPlus reported the drop, citing the Asian Bank of Development. Remittances play a crucial role in Tajikistan's economy. They surged 83.0% in 2022 to $5.3 billion. In 2023, this figure increased 6.6% to $5.7 billion. The bank's analysts believe new regulations may impede them. The anti-immigrant sentiments in Russia could also eventually add to this, amplifying such trends.

On October 4, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnullin arrived in Dushanbe for a Tajik-Russian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meeting. The meeting underscored the countries' economic commitments to each other. And, Khusnullin reiterated Moscow's toughening stance on illegal immigration, stating that it would cease to exist.

Last Tuesday, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan seemingly pushed on in their efforts to resolve their long-standing border dispute. Armed clashes between the two nations have erupted over the matter in the past. Aside from statements on continuing discussions and giving instructions, little was said. Back in July, The Kyrgyz Republic's Cabinet of Ministers stated that 94% of the Kyrgyz-Tajik state border had been delineated.

The week before, the joint company for the long-awaited railway "China — Kyrgyzstan — Uzbekistan" launched operations on September 28. China Railway International, Kyrgyz Temir Zholu, and Uzbek Uzbekistan Temir Yollari will be engaged in the joint construction effort. Beijing is set to cover 51% of construction costs, whereas Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will cover 24.5% each. These figures also represent ownership.

The project's total price tag has been estimated at $4 billion 665 million. Half, $2 billion 332 million, will be transferred by China to the joint company's account as a loan. Beijing must allocate $1 billion 187 million for the remaining amount, and Tashkent and Bishkek $573 million each. The three countries' shares in the project determine the proportion. Discussing the project, Uzbek Deputy Transport Minister Jasurbek Choriyev also touched base on Tashkent's efforts to complete financing agreements with Afghanistan for the Trans-Afghan Railway.

Incidentally, on October 4, Putin's representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said that Russian authorities would soon announce the Taliban's removal from the list of terrorist organizations.

Armenia has also expressed readiness to deepen ties with China. On the occasion of the People's Republic of China's 75th anniversary, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a telegram to Xi Jinping and Li Qiang, noting such intent. Meanwhile, a senior Armenian diplomat told Anadolu Yerevan is pleased by the “positive dynamics” in the normalization relations with Türkiye and is ready for “full normalization." Georgia's government, continuing its pivot away from the West, officially signed its anti-LGBTQ+ bill into law, which was followed by an EU official's statement regarding all high-level meetings with the nation's officials being suspended. 

Gohar Barseghyan, a Yerevan native and EEC Industry and Agro-Industrial Complex board member, announced that Iran might receive observer status in the EAEU in December. This past week, Yerevan also announced the possibility of operating in the Iranian port of Chabahar, which could become a beneficial link in the North-South Corridor. Kazakhstan has also previously demonstrated interest in both the port and the corridor.

In a similar vein, Kazakhstan's Aqtau port has shown growth. Over the past 8 months in 2024, the volume of cargo transshipment through the port exceeded 3 million tons. At the end of August, it surpassed a record and handled 8,150 TEU containers. Aqtau is a crucial link in the Middle Corridor, a logistical path that bypasses Russia.

Unrelated, Russia's Rosselkhoznadzor presented accusations against Kazakhstan and halted grain, tomatoes, peppers, and sunflower seed exports from the Central Asian nation. Some have presumed that Russia did this because of Kazakhstan's recent ban on wheat imports. Still, Yermek Kenzhehanuly, Vice Minister of Agriculture, did not correlate these events, stating that the ministry was awaiting clarification.

Three days later, Kazakhstan held its referendum on constructing a nuclear power plant. The voting has been declared valid, and the results indicating support released. Kazakh President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev announced that his nation's nuclear power plant should be built by an international consortium.

Two days prior, Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaybek Ibrayev said that searches are ongoing for a suitable place to construct a "Rosatom" nuclear power plant in Kyrgyzstan. His counterpart, Daniyar Amangeldiev, from the Kyrgyz Economic Ministry, claimed the republic had not imported sanctioned goods despite allegations that the nation has been utilized to circumvent restrictions. 

Not long before, reports surfaced that Uzbekistan's Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov stated that Uzbekistan was finalizing the procedure for joining the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). Conversely, Kazakhstan would issue its first Eurobonds since 2015 in the same week.