Kazakhstan Revises 2025 Oil Production Target

Kazakhstan has reduced its 2025 oil production forecast from 97.2 to 96.2 million tons, Orda.kz reports.

According to AzReport, citing Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy, the downward revision is attributed to scheduled maintenance at major oil facilities — including 50 days of repairs at Tengiz, 21 days at Kashagan, and unplanned shutdowns at Karachaganak. 

The Ministry also noted pressure from OPEC+ production quotas as a contributing factor.

Additional reasons include CPC pipeline maintenance work and gas intake limitations at Russia's Orenburg Gas Processing Plant.

Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev referenced similar issues in December 2024 when explaining why Kazakhstan missed its production targets.

However, CPC maintained that their pipeline maintenance did not impact production volumes.

Meanwhile, analyst Nurlan Zhumagulov presents a different perspective.

He notes that major oil fields aren't scheduled for extensive maintenance in 2025, and Tengiz production could increase.

The full restoration of oil production at the Tengiz second-generation plant promised in November has not yet been completed. Of course, there is hope for the launch of the Tengiz Future Growth Project in the first half of 2025, the budget of which exceeded $48 billion. It seems that no major scheduled repairs are planned at Kashagan and Karachaganak, emphasized Nurlan Zhumagulov.

The lowered forecast may be more closely related to Kazakhstan's commitment to OPEC+ quotas, which it exceeded in 2024 than domestic production issues.

The country pledged in December to better comply with them.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny