Kazakhstan on Track to Become a High-Income Country by 2028 – Economist

Kazakhstan could transition to a high-income economy within the next three to four years, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Orda.kz reports.

EDB Chief Economist Evgeny Vinokurov highlights that Kazakhstan has achieved significant economic progress, positioning itself close to high-income status. Over the past 30 years, real GDP per capita has more than tripled, outpacing developed and developing nations.

Notably, the percentage of Kazakhstanis living on less than $2.15 per day has dropped to nearly zero.

Kazakhstan is nearing a significant milestone and could soon join the ranks of high-income economies (HICs) under the World Bank classification. Currently categorized as an upper-middle-income country, Kazakhstan falls within a group where per capita Gross National Income (GNI) ranges from $4,500 to $14,000. These thresholds are adjusted annually to reflect inflation. By the end of 2023, Kazakhstan's per capita GNI reached $10,700, and our projections indicate it rose to $11,500 by the end of 2024.Evgeny Vinokurov. 

According to the EDB, Kazakhstan’s per capita Gross National Income (GNI) experienced steady growth until 2014, after which it declined due to a crisis-related downturn.

However, since 2020, GNI has been on the rise again, and by the end of 2024, it has almost returned to its 2014 peak. By 2025, Kazakhstan’s GNI will exceed $12,000 per capita. By 2029, it is projected to surpass $16,000, officially placing the country in the high-income category.

Vinokurov attributes this progress to major investment projects, industrial expansion, growth in manufacturing, and structural market reforms.

International recognition of Kazakhstan's economic progress will enhance its appeal to foreign investors. The majority of the top 30 countries in the WEF competitiveness ranking are high-income economies, with Malaysia and China being the only exceptions. Typically, high-income countries demonstrate greater resilience to economic shocks and crises,emphasizes Evgeny Vinokurov. 

As a result, Kazakhstan would find it easier to attract international loans. Additionally, it would have greater potential to increase high-value-added production and boost investment in human capital.

While these projections paint an optimistic economic future, it’s crucial to note that GNI per capita reflects national income averages, not individual earnings. Rising income inequality could mean that not all Kazakhstanis will experience the benefits of this economic transformation equally.

In fact, previous reports indicate that actual salaries in Kazakhstan remain significantly lower than official figures, raising concerns about whether economic growth will translate into better living standards for all citizens.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny