How Does Kazakh Leadership See Future of EAEU and What Does China Have to Do with It?

The Kazakh President made a speech at the II Eurasian Economic Forum "Eurasian Integration in a Multipolar World" in Moscow. Parts of the speech became the subject of lively discussion among political scientists, economists, international experts and typical social network users. An Orda correspondent spoke to experts about the situation.

Eurasian Integration Under Chinese Supervision

Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov believes that the President of Kazakhstan announced a fundamentally new vision of the alignment of forces on the Eurasian continent and a changed matrix of relations between states both within the EAEU and along its perimeter.

This vision reflects a new reality. Its outlines became even clearer after the Central Asia-China summit. The summit took place in Xi'an a week ago and consolidated the deployment of Xi Jinping's One Belt, One Road project. The EAEU members will now have to adjust their plans and projects accordingly.

Toqayev also stressed the special role of his country in this large-scale process as he already said in an interview with Chinese television. In his opinion, Kazakhstan can become the center of all Eurasia and the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan will try to strengthen this position.

"But, in addition, Toqayev quite clearly and fearlessly pointed out the dissonance in the work of the EAEU, bearing in mind the increasingly active military-political rapprochement between Russia and Belarus, even making a joke about common nuclear weapons. But such a rapprochement became possible due to the presence of common Slavic roots, and is not suitable for all members of the EAEU,"

Arkady Dubnov

Toqayev did indeed highlight that now there are two levels of integration. One within the Russian-Belarusian union with the highest level of military and political coordination. The other concerns the rest of the EAEU members: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.

"As for specifically the Central Asian states that are members of the EAEU, they will have to integrate, first of all, within their region, but now with full coordination of actions and financial support from China. This is the most important and valuable thing in Toqayev's speech at the Forum."

At the same time, Russia will remain an important economic partner for Kazakhstan. Astana has no access to the sea, not counting the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan intends to use Moscow's transit territory and assistance in the implementation of major infrastructure projects, Arkady Dubnov believes.

Following Nazarbayev's Course

According to political commentator Gaziz Abishev, there were no breakthroughs in Toqayev's speech at the summit. However, China's consistent mentioning is noteworthy. President Xi also spoke on the video. A stark reminder that China is the EAEU's main economic partner. China, therefore, has demonstrated Bejing's dominant economic position on the continent via its own abilities, through its allies, and the Eurasian Union's representatives. Meanwhile, Russia, along with Kazakhstan and other neighbors, are becoming increasingly dependent on the PRC.

Toqayev, on the other hand, once again stressed the economic nature of the Eurasian integration.

"But even Lukashenko admitted that when the EAEU was created, Putin tried to take him to the military-political plane, but Nazarbayev refrained from it. And Toqayev is now continuing this line. And this is not just a coincidence of the personal positions of the first and second Presidents of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This is a course that is dictated by both rational circumstances and the historical will of the Kazakhstani people and the electorate. And in the current conditions, of course, we are not ready for any political integration, because the main task of Kazakhstan is to preserve its historical statehood,"

Gaziz Abishev explained.

But not everyone understands this in Russia and Belarus, whose leaders are trying to turn the EAEU into a military-political bloc. The EAEU charter does not stipulate this and does not meet the interests of Kazakhstan.

"That's why Toqayev is now cooling them down and saying: take your time. Yes, you are now building a union state. But you do it because you have a close history, culture, language, mentality. You merge into one identity. But Kazakhstan has a different situation."

Kazakhstan's leadership is primarily interested in the economic aspect, though there are several issues to be addressed. These include various obstacles that some members of the EAEU pose to others, complicating the already difficult situation of participants in the integration process, Gaziz Abishev explained.

Russia Hinders EAEU Development The Most

According to the director of the Institute of Eurasian Integration Urazgali Selteev, Qasym-Jomart Toqayev at the Eurasian Economic Forum again openly outlined two key messages for the EAEU partners.

Firstly, he stressed the inexpediency and fallacy of the imaginary and formal acceleration of Eurasian integration without the implementation of the basic and fundamental foundations. Haste for the sake of symbolism is meaningless. It should be additionally understood that it is Russia that does not comply with the general contractual conditions, constantly creating barriers and obstacles in its interests.

"Secondly, our president, speaking about the peculiarities of the union state of Russia and Belarus with an emphasis on "nuclear weapons one for two", unequivocally warned the "hotheads" from draggin the rest of the EAEU members into geopolitical confrontations. That is, the problems of Moscow and Minsk in relations with the world community and sanctions isolation concern only themselves."

The political scientist is also certain that the Kremlin's dreams that other members of the EAEU will discontinue using the dollar will remain nothing more than an undignified fantasy.

Original Author: Danil Utyupin

DISCLAIMER: This is a translated piece. The text has been modified, the content is the same. Please refer to the original article in Russian for accuracy.