Analyst Bob McNally: Oil Price Collapse Possible

Due to non-compliance with the OPEC+ quotas, the organization may take drastic measures and allow a sharp drop in global oil prices in 2025. Robert McNally, American business analyst and writer, is of this opinion.

Commenting for CNBC, McNally said that in 2025, the global oil market could face a price collapse because individual OPEC+ members have not reduced production. He says such price declines occur on average once every five years.

Iraq could affect the price decline, but according to McNally, Kazakhstan is also partly responsible for the possible outcome.

I think this is one of the big "bearish" risks. What is happening? OPEC+ leaders are very frustrated with overproduction, or so we call it 'cheating,' by especially Iraq and Kazakhstan. And they made quite a show of saying we want Iraq to comply, to cut production, in September, the analyst said.

On October 14, the OPEC+ leadership will receive data on the amount of oil produced in September. If the figures do not satisfy the organization, especially its unofficial leader, Saudi Arabia, the organization will "sweat the producers."

Every once in a while, there has to be a price drop to remind members of OPEC+ that they have an obligation to participate collectively in supply management. Otherwise, there is an incentive to cheat and freeride. As you say, in 2015, Russia wouldn't go along with the price cuts, we had a price collapse. In 2020, Russia again wouldn't go along with the COVID demand cuts that were needed - we had a price collapse. Now, it's Iraq that's the main problem, and Kazakhstan. So history kind of repeats here, Robert McNally believes.

The expert believes there is a high risk that world oil prices will collapse to $60 per barrel in 2025 or even lower. In his opinion, this decline will be a "temporary market adjustment."