Unlikely for Birds to Hit Two Engines Simultaneously - Aviation Expert Serik Mukhtybaev on AZAL Plane Crash

The crash of the Embraer-190 aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines in Aqtau has spurred discussions concerning its reasons. 

Orda.kz spoke with aviation expert Serik Mukhtybayev to understand the situation. The interview was given before Azerbaijani officials spoke with Euronews about a Russian missile being the cause.

Allegedly, the crashed plane did not land in Grozny because of fog. How should the crew commander act if he learns about fog? How is an alternate airfield selected? 

Before departure, the crew selects alternate airfields beforehand. The amount of fuel, weather conditions, the need to cross borders, and other parameters are calculated. 

Most likely, they listed Aqtau as one alternate airport. In this regard, the crew likely responded appropriately. As I understand it, due to weather conditions, it could not land in Makhachkala (the plane was redirected there from Grozny — Ed.), so the captain decided to land in Aqtau.

This is standard practice for ensuring flight safety. 

There is information that the plane disappeared from radars at the 37th minute of the flight and then reappeared. This can be seen on Flightradar24. What could this mean?

In the video from the plane, I noticed that the oxygen masks were released. This may indicate that something technical happened. Masks usually fall out during depressurization or in other emergency cases when passengers need to be provided with oxygen. 

So, it could have been a technical malfunction that led to it disappearing from radar? 

A plane sends a signal using a transponder, and its movement is tracked. If its signal is lost, it means the power could have gone out, or something else could have happened.

Perhaps the pilots tried to restart the engine, and to do this, they de-energized the entire plane. 

There can be many assumptions. But all this will be finally clarified during the investigation.

When they find the black boxes, they will assess their condition and take them for decoding. (Both have been found - Ed.)

Journalist Alexey Pivovarov, a pilot, noted that the plane's movement fluctuated before the crash - sometimes rising, falling again. What could this mean?

Clearly, the plane was moving sporadically, and the pilots were trying to level it out.

They seemed to be trying to turn onto the runway to land, but there was a large bank and a large pitch, which ultimately led to the collision.

There could have been many factors. For example, there was an inability to control the planes due to technical issues. Or wanting to level the aircraft to land faster. Or running out of fuel. It is difficult to say now.

How likely is the bird strike?

It is unlikely for birds to hit two engines simultaneously. And a flight can be continued with one engine.

Also, according to preliminary information, after an hour of flight, the crew reported technical problems. After an hour of flight, a plane gains quite a decent altitude.

So it is unlikely for birds to be there?

— Can't rule it out, but bird collisions mostly occur during takeoff and landing.

At flight levels (after gaining altitude — Ed.), this can happen during mass bird migration. But it's winter, so how could it be migrations? 

Why did the pilots choose to fly over the Caspian Sea between Grozny and Aqtau, considering the considerable distance? Or did they want to land on water?

Landing on water is the least desirable option. If you don’t choose the right approach angle, the plane will instantly be torn apart. 

15 years ago, a pilot was able to land a plane on the Hudson, but this is pure skill.  (Plane crash in the USA on January 15, 2009 — Ed.).

So, the pilots understood the risk? 

Pilots are not kamikazes — they will save the passengers first and themselves. It will probably be more apparent from the transcript. But, in my opinion, they did everything possible to land the plane safely.

Original Author: Igor Ulitin

Read also: 

• Aqtau: Plane Flying from Baku to Grozny Crashed
• Aqtau Plane Crash: Who Were The Heroic Pilots?
• Preliminary Investigation: Russian Missile Caused Azerbaijan Airlines Crash - Euronews