No Policy Shift Expected: Analysts See National Bank Maintaining Base Rate

Halyk Finance forecasts that the National Bank will keep its base rate at 18% on November 28, noting that current macroeconomic trends don’t justify tightening or loosening monetary policy, Orda.kz reports.

Their inflation outlook also remains unchanged — 12–12.5% year-on-year by late 2025.

In October, inflation slowed for the first time in a year, from 12.9% to 12.6%. The main factor was the slowdown in utility price growth. This was also due to the freeze on utility rates, the abolition of differentiated water charges in several regions, and the suspension of gasoline price increases. Together, these measures slowed the rise in prices for services and non-food items,
 says analyst Alexey Afonsky.

He also highlights two stabilizing forces: fewer transfers from the National Fund in the second half of the year and a stronger tenge, which has risen 5.5% since October amid increased FX inflows and investor demand.

These shifts helped mitigate prices on imported products.

Last month, the National Bank raised the base rate by 150 basis points to 18% — the highest level in 25 years — arguing it needed to restore control over inflation. With markets now adjusting, analysts expect no sudden moves.

Earlier, National Bank Head Timur Suleimenov suggested another rate hike could follow if inflation fails to ease, stressing that the November review would determine the course ahead. He also signaled that monetary policy would remain tight until inflation is fully contained.

A high base rate means costlier loans and more lucrative deposits — a combination that slows price growth but risks freezing mortgage lending.

Analysts believe banks are unlikely to ramp up housing loans without fresh state subsidies.

Original Author: Ruslan Loginov