Nearly 1.5 Trillion Tenge Already Spent From Kazakhstan’s National Fund in 2025

In just the first three months of 2025, Kazakhstan has already spent close to 1.5 trillion tenge from its National Fund. Meanwhile, the plan for tax collections into the National Fund has been met by only 13%, nearly half the rate of the same period last year, Orda.kz reports.

According to analysts from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), total tax collection across all government levels — the National Fund, the republican budget, and local budgets — reached 5.8 trillion tenge in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 4.8% increase compared to the same period last year.

However, most of that growth came from the republican and local budgets, while tax revenues flowing specifically into the National Fund dropped sharply.

In fact, the National Fund collected just 547 billion tenge in taxes in Q1 — a 47% decline from last year.

Despite this drop, it remained the top revenue source as the government withdrew 1.45 trillion tenge from its reserves, outpacing the republican (520 billion) and local budgets (292 billion).

On the other hand, VAT revenues to the republican budget rose 13%, and corporate income tax collections jumped 28%, improving the overall national tax collection rate from 19.9% last year to 21.1% this year.

Despite stronger tax performance outside the National Fund, it hasn’t been enough to cover all budget gaps. To help finance the growing deficit, Kazakhstan took on 1.5 trillion tenge in new loans early this year, part of an annual borrowing plan of 8.3 trillion tenge. Treasury spending exceeded revenues by 857 billion tenge.

To keep the budget afloat, the government has also continued its familiar practice of drawing from the National Fund. For 2025, 5.25 trillion tenge in National Fund transfers are planned, and 1.45 trillion tenge has already been used. Given the low oil prices and sharply declining tax revenues, it’s likely that the National Fund will experience a decrease in 2025.

AFK’s forecasts paint a worrying picture. In the first quarter, the National Fund received only 622 billion tenge, or about 43% of the amount withdrawn. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s debt could rise to 37.2 trillion tenge, or 24.7% of GDP.

Given this outlook, AFK analysts stress the need for better management of state assets, faster privatization of investment-attractive holdings, and stronger efforts to combat the shadow economy.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny