Kazakhstan Has Used 60% of Its National Fund Transfer Quota in First Half of 2025

Kazakhstan has already used 60% of its planned transfers from the National Fund to the republican budget in the first half of 2025. To stay within the annual limit, no more than 2.1 trillion tenge can be withdrawn between July and December, Orda.kz reports.

Economist Ruslan Sultanov noted in his Telegram channel Tengenomika that 3.1 trillion tenge in transfers had already been made this year. He pointed out that the revenue plan for the state budget had not been met — only 10.3 trillion tenge was collected, short of the projected 11.2 trillion.

Tax revenue reached 99% of the target (6.47 trillion tenge against the planned 6.53 trillion), and corporate income tax collections even exceeded expectations by two percent. Non-tax revenues came in 31% above plan.

Despite this, the overall revenue still fell short.

The main question now is how the government plans to keep transfer withdrawals from the National Fund within target levels. To stick to the plan, the second half of the year will need to see a full trillion tenge less in transfers compared to the first six months — something that currently seems unlikely.

On the spending side, less was disbursed than expected: 11.8 trillion tenge versus the planned 12.9 trillion. The resulting budget deficit was 1.5 trillion tenge.

Key tax revenues, especially VAT, are starting to fall behind targets — this is a troubling signal, as VAT reflects current economic activity. At the same time, there is a persistent underexecution of the expenditure side of the budget. This could be due either to administrators being unprepared to disburse funds or to project delays. We have already used 60% of the annual National Fund transfer limit, which reduces the space for further compensatory injections in the second half of the year. The current deficit turned out to be lower than planned, but not due to higher revenues — rather, because expenditures weren’t met. This means planned objectives remain unfulfilled,commented Ruslan Sultanov. 

He advised making budget planning more realistic, ensuring timely disbursement of funds, and reducing dependency on transfers by broadening the tax base.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny